Thursday, August 02, 2018

ANS -- America the Failed State

This one is a bit long.  And I can't say I agree with everything he says, but it's interesting.  A bit depressing....
--Kim


TD ORIGINALS

America the Failed State

Mr. Fish / Truthdig

TORONTO—Our "corporate coup d'état in slow motion," as the writer John Ralston Saul calls it, has opened a Pandora's box of evils that is transforming America into a failed state. The "unholy trinity of corruption, impunity and violence," he said, can no longer be checked. The ruling elites abjectly serve corporate power to exploit and impoverish the citizenry. Democratic institutions, including the courts, are mechanisms of corporate repression. Financial fraud and corporate crime are carried out with impunity. The decay is exacerbated by the state's indiscriminate use of violence abroad and at home, where rogue law enforcement agencies harass and arrest citizens and the undocumented and often kill the unarmed. A depressed and enraged population, trapped by chronic unemployment and underemployment, is overdosing on opioids and beset by rising suicide rates. It engages in acts of nihilistic violence, including mass shootings. Hate groups proliferate. The savagery, mayhem and grotesque distortions familiar to those on the outer reaches of empire increasingly characterize American existence. And presiding over it all is the American version of Ubu Roi, playwright Alfred Jarry's gluttonous, idiotic, vulgar, narcissistic and infantile king, who turned politics into burlesque.

"Congress works through corruption," Saul, the author of books such as "Voltaire's Bastards: The Dictatorship of Reason in the West" and "The Collapse of Globalism and the Reinvention of the World," said when we spoke in Toronto. "I look at Congress and I see the British Parliament in the late 18th century, the rotten boroughs. Did they have elections? Yes. Were the elections exciting? Yes. They were extremely exciting."

Rotten boroughs were the 19th-century version of gerrymandering. The British oligarchs created electoral maps through which depopulated boroughs—50 of them had fewer than 50 voters—were easily dominated by the rich to maintain control of the House of Commons. In the United States, our ruling class has done much the same, creating districts where incumbents, who often run unchallenged, return to Congress election after election. Only about 40 of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives are actually contested. And given the composition of the Supreme Court, especially with Donald Trump poised to install another justice, it will get worse.

The corruption of the British system was amended in what Saul called "a wave upwards." The 1832 Reform Act abolished a practice in which oligarchs, such as Charles Howard, the 11th Duke of Norfolk, controlled the election results in 11 boroughs. The opening up of the British parliamentary system took nearly a century. In the United States, Saul said, the destruction of democracy is part of "a wave downwards."

The two political parties are one party—the corporate party. They do not debate substantive issues. They each support the expansion of imperial wars, the bloated military budget, the dictates of global capitalism, the bailing out of Wall Street, punishing austerity measures, assaulting basic civil liberties through wholesale government surveillance and the abolition of due process, and an electoral process that has cemented into place a system of legalized bribery. They battle over cultural tropes such as abortion, gay rights and prayer in schools. We elect politicians based on how we are made to feel about them by the public relations industry. Politics is anti-politics.

The Republican Party built its political base in these culture wars around Christian fascists, nativists and white supremacists. The Democratic Party built its base around those who supported workers' rights, multiculturalism, diversity and gender equality. The base of each party was used and manipulated by elites. The Republican Party elites had no intention of banning abortion or turning America into a "Christian nation." The Democratic Party elites had no intention of protecting workers from predatory corporatism. Everyone was sold out. The ascendancy of a populist right, dominated by racists and bigots, is the inevitable product of the corporate coup d'état, Saul said. He warned we should not be complacent because of President Trump's imbecility. Trump is immensely dangerous. "The insipid," Thomas Mann wrote in "The Magic Mountain," "is not synonymous with the harmless."

"How could a civilization devoted to structure, expertise and answers evolve into other than a coalition of professional groups?" Saul asked in "Voltaire's Bastards." "How, then, could the individual citizen not be seen as a serious impediment to getting on with business? This has been obscured by the proposition of painfully simplified abstract notions which are divorced from any social reality and presented as values."

"The rational elites, obsessed by structure, have become increasingly authoritarian in a modern, administrative way," he wrote in another section of the book. "The citizens feel insulted and isolated. They look for someone to throw stones on their behalf. Any old stone will do. The cruder the better to crush the self-assurance of the obscure men and their obscure methods. The New Right, with its parody of democratic values, has been a crude but devastating stone with which to punish the modern elites."

All despotic regimes, Saul said, carry out their final battle for control by contending against public officials and government bureaucrats, the so-called deep state, which views the rise to power of demagogues and their sleazy enablers with alarm. These traditional courtiers, often cynical, ambitious, amoral and subservient to corporate power, nevertheless engage in the decorum and language of democracy. A few with a conscience win minor skirmishes to slow the rise of tyranny. Despots see these courtiers and democratic institutions, no matter how anemic, as a threat. This explains the assaults on the State Department, the Justice Department, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Education and the courts. Despots use their appointees to undermine and destroy these institutions, mocking their existence and questioning the loyalty of the professionals who staff them. The reviled and neutered public employee surrenders or walks away in despair. Last year, the entire senior level of management officials resigned at the State Department. Resignations continue to bleed the diplomatic core, as they do at other agencies and departments, and last week included James D. Melville Jr., the U.S. ambassador to Estonia, and Susan Thornton, the nominee to be assistant secretary for East Asian affairs.

"For the President to say the EU was 'set up to take advantage of the United States, to attack our piggy bank,' or that 'NATO is as bad as NAFTA' is not only factually wrong, but proves to me that it's time to go," Melville said in the post that announced his resignation.

Once a process of deconstruction is complete, the system calcifies into tyranny. There remain no internal mechanisms, even in name, to carry out reform. This corrosive process is being played out daily in Trump's Twitter rages, lies, smears and the barrage of insults he levels against public servants, including some of his own appointees, such as Attorney General Jeff Sessions, as well as institutions such as the FBI.

Witnessing this, Saul berates the American press too, which he said willingly plays its part in the charade for ratings and advertising dollars.

"Trump gives these astonishingly Mussolini-ish press conferences," he said. "He says to the press, 'Shut up. Stop!' The press screams at him like a mob, a bunch of cattle. How can they be taken seriously? It is like the end of the Roman Republic. Important political leaders from the Senate, along with their rivals, would move around Rome with 50 people to protect them. Scenes, exactly like Trump's interactions with the press, defined the end of the Roman Republic. Nobody knew what was going on. There was no dignity. You can't have a democracy without a level of respect and dignity. You only have chaos. This chaos eventually leads to a call for autocratic order. Trump benefits from the confusion, even though he resembles a cartoonish figure out of a funny novel, a character from Jean Genet's 'The Balcony,' although without the self-awareness."

Trump's decision to launch a trade war—Canada will impose punitive measures on $12.63 billion worth of imported American goods in response—is an example of the damage a despot who has little understanding of the economy, politics, international relations or law can do. These self-inflicted wounds, Saul warned, see despots intensify attacks on the demonized and the vulnerable, such as Muslims and the undocumented. Despots frantically scapegoat others for their mess, often inciting violence among their supporters to placate an inchoate rage.

"I've always opposed trade deals not because I oppose trade," Saul said, "or because I thought they were about getting a fair balance in the trade, but because the trade deals were about something else. They were about deregulation. They were about handing power to corporations and banks. They weren't about trade. Trump has again and again attacked the Canadian dairy system. Nobody has stopped to ask him, 'Why are you opposing this instead of adopting it for yourself?' A lot of American dairy farmers would like to have the Canadian system."

"The free market approach to agriculture produces a surplus that drives prices down and destroys the income of farmers," Saul said. "There are two ways of responding to this. One of them is subsidizing. Europe, following the old social democratic approach, subsidizes their agricultural sector. This drives down the income of farmers, so [the governments] subsidize [agriculture] more. They have enormous surpluses. Periodically, they're throwing millions of tomatoes on the streets."

"The United States claims it embraces the free market, but it does the same thing as the Europeans," Saul said. "It too heavily subsidizes the agricultural industry. This leads to American dairy farmers producing too much milk. This economic argument says the way to win is to mass-produce cheap goods. This is the Walmart argument. You're not selling your milk or cheese for enough to make a living. The end result is, even though you subsidize them, the farmers go bankrupt. They commit suicide. You have terrible unhappiness in the [U.S.] dairy community."

"We have a very efficient management system in Canada that keeps the prices up, not so high that working-class people can't buy milk and cheese, but it keeps the prices up high enough that farmers can make a proper living," Saul said. "Because farmers can make a proper living they're not committing suicide. What Trump is saying to Canadians is that they should give up a system that works so Canadian farmers can commit suicide with American farmers."

"The problem with the Western world is surplus production," Saul said. "We're in surplus production in almost every area. But there is a terrible distribution system where people around the globe suffer and die from starvation. This is a distribution problem, not a production problem."

Saul said the imposition of tariffs and the crude insults Trump uses against American allies—he called Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau "dishonest and weak"—are rapidly destroying America's clout and standing in the global hierarchy. This behavior is having very negative political, economic and social consequences for the United States.

"The whole world, the Western world in particular, invested enormously in the idea that the United States is the leader," Saul said. "The idea that the United States is to be admired. What's sad about it is Americans take it for granted that the world loves them. They've never analyzed the responsibilities that come with being the leader. It's what you expect from a good parent. You act in a certain way. People want to identify with the United States. It's been that way since the Second World War. All this is being thrown away. Like or dislike Obama, he rebuilt a great part of the world's admiration for the United States. I know what his failures were. But I also know his strengths. He was a president who was capable of acting and talking like the intelligent, civilized American that everyone wants to admire."

"But there's always a shadow to the bright tower," Saul went on. "Trump's feeding that shadow. 'Americans are stupid. Americans are corrupt. Americans are not educated. Americans can't be trusted.' The whole list. The longer the chaos goes on, the worse it gets."

The collapse of the legislative and executive branches of government has now been accompanied by the collapse of the judiciary. The loss of an independent judiciary, Saul warned, is especially ominous.

"The biggest problem in the United States is a very powerful and deeply corrupted Supreme Court," Saul said. "This will set patterns for decades. It will be hard to undo the evil being put into place."

Saul despaired, at the same time, over the Trump administration's attack on public education, which he called "the most fundamental service of government when it comes to a democracy."

"What holds democracy up?" Saul asked. "What makes democracy work? Public education is number one. A well-educated citizen. [Secretary of Education] Betsy DeVos is undoing that. There is a special place for her in hell."

U.S. trading partners and allies such as Canada and European states will, he said, reduce their dependence on the American market. The traditional strategic and political ties to Washington will be steadily weakened. And when the next financial crash comes, and Saul expects one to come, the United States will be bereft of partners when it needs them most.

"If you treat your closest allies as a threat, who is going to stand with you?" he asked.


Wednesday, August 01, 2018

ANS -- Technology Is Making America a Nation of Big Babies — Ready to Embrace Authoritarian Rule

This is about how "modern" society infantilizes us.  It does not mention the role of capitalism in that, which I would consider a big factor, but it does include a list of what traits constitute "maturity".  
--Kim


NEWS & POLITICS

Technology Is Making America a Nation of Big Babies — Ready to Embrace Authoritarian Rule

Our social institutions and technological devices seem to erode hallmarks of maturity

Photo Credit: Fox News Channel

If you regularly watch TV, you've probably seen a cartoon bear pitching you toilet paper, a gecko with a British accent selling you auto insurance and a bunny in sunglasses promoting batteries.

This has always struck me as a bit odd. Sure, it makes sense to use cartoon characters to sell products to kids – a phenomenon that's been well-documented.

But why are advertisers using the same techniques on adults?

To me, it's just one symptom of a broader trend of infantilization in Western culture. It began before the advent of smartphones and social media. But, as I argue in my book "The Terminal Self," our everyday interactions with these computer technologies have accelerated and normalized our culture's infantile tendencies.

Society-wide arrested development

The dictionary defines infantilizing as treating someone "as a child or in a way that denies their maturity in age or experience."

What's considered age-appropriate or mature is obviously quite relative. But most societies and cultures will deem behaviors appropriate for some stages of life, but not others.

As the Bible puts it in 1 Corinthians 13:11, "When I was a child, I talked like a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child. When I became a man, I put childish ways behind me."

Some psychologists will be quick to note that not everyone puts their "childish ways" behind them. You can become fixated at a particular stage of development and fail to reach an age-appropriate level of maturity. When facing unmanageable stress or trauma, you can even regress to a previous stage of development. And psychologist Abraham Maslow has suggested that spontaneous childlike behaviors in adults aren't inherently problematic.

But some cultural practices today routinely infantilize large swaths of the population.

We see it in our everyday speech, when we refer to grown women as "girls"; in how we treat senior citizens, when we place them in adult care centers where they're forced to surrender their autonomy and privacy; and in the way school personnel and parents treat teenagers, refusing to acknowledge their intelligence and need for autonomy, restricting their freedom, and limiting their ability to enter the workforce.

Can entire societies succumb to infantilization?

Frankfurt School scholars such as Herbert Marcuse, Erich Fromm and other critical theorists suggest that – like individuals – a society can also suffer from arrested development.

In their view, adults' failure to reach emotional, social or cognitive maturity is not due to individual shortcomings.

Rather, it is socially engineered.

A return to innocence

Visiting America in 1946, French anthropologist Claude Lévi-Strausscommented on the endearingly infantile traits of American culture. He especially noted adults' childish adulation of baseball, their passionate approach to toy-like cars and the amount of time they invested in hobbies.

As contemporary scholars note, however, this "infantilist ethos" has become less charming – and more pervasive.

Researchers on both sides of the Atlantic have observed how this ethos has now crept into a vast range of social spheres.

In many workplaces, managers can now electronically monitor their employees, many of whom work in open spaces with little personal privacy. As sociologist Gary T. Marx observed, it creates a situation in which workers feel that managers expect them "to behave irresponsibly, to take advantage, and to screw up unless they remove all temptation, prevent them from doing so or trick or force them to do otherwise."

Much has been written about higher education's tendency to infantilize its students, whether it's through monitoring their social media accounts, guiding their every step, or promoting "safe spaces" on campus.

Meanwhile, tourist destinations like Las Vegas market excess, indulgence and freedom from responsibility in casino environments that conjure memories of childhood fantasies: the Old West, medieval castles and the circus. Scholars have also explored how this form of Las Vegas-style "Disneyfication" has left its stamp on planned communities, architecture and contemporary art.

Then we've witnessed the rise of a "therapy culture," which, as sociologist Frank Furedi warns, treats adults as vulnerable, weak and fragile, while implying that their troubles rooted in childhood qualify them for a "permanent suspension of moral sense." He argues that this absolves grown-ups from adult responsibilities and erodes their trust in their own experiences and insights.

Researchers in Russia and Spain have even identified infantilist trends in language, and French sociologist Jacqueline Barus-Michel observes that we now communicate in "flashes," rather than via thoughtful discourse – "poorer, binary, similar to computer language, and aiming to shock."

Others have noted similar trends in popular culture – in the shorter sentences in contemporary novels, in the lack of sophistication in political rhetoric and in sensationalist cable news coverage.

High-tech pacifiers

While scholars such as James Côté and Gary Cross remind us that infantilizing trends began well before our current moment, I believe our daily interactions with smartphones and social media are so pleasurable precisely because they normalize and gratify infantile dispositions.

They endorse self-centeredness and inflated exhibitionism. They promote an orientation towards the present, rewarding impulsivity and celebrating constant and instant gratification.

They flatter our needs for visibility and provide us with 24/7 personalized attention, while eroding our ability to empathize with others.

Whether we use them for work or pleasure, our devices also foster a submissive attitude. In order to take advantage of all they offer, we have to surrender to their requirements, agreeing to "terms" we do not understand and handing over stores of personal data.

Indeed, the routine and aggressive ways our devices violate our privacy via surveillance automatically deprive us of this fundamental adult right.

While we might find it trivial or amusing, the infantilist ethos becomes especially seductive in times of social crises and fear. And its favoring of simple, easy and fast betrays natural affinities for certain political solutions over others.

And typically not intelligent ones.

Democratic policymaking requires debate, demands compromise and involves critical thinking. It entails considering different viewpoints, anticipating the future, and composing thoughtful legislation.

What's a fast, easy and simple alternative to this political process? It's not difficult to imagine an infantile society being attracted to authoritarian rule.

Unfortunately, our social institutions and technological devices seem to erode hallmarks of maturity: patience, empathy, solidarity, humility and commitment to a project greater than oneself.

The ConversationAll are qualities that have traditionally been considered essential for both healthy adulthood and for the proper functioning of democracy.

Simon Gottschalk, Professor of Sociology, University of Nevada, Las Vegas

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.


ANS -- Artificial Intelligence Shows Why Atheism Is Unpopular

This is an interesting article about an artificial intelligence model that predicts the amount of secularism and tells you how to change it.  The interesting part is that there is information about how to change society in various ways.  The author mentions ethics at the end.  
--Kim


Artificial Intelligence Shows Why Atheism Is Unpopular

Religious crosses made out of computer keys
DAN CRETU / GETTY / KATIE MARTIN / THE ATLANTIC

Imagine you're the president of a European country. You're slated to take in 50,000 refugees from the Middle East this year. Most of them are very religious, while most of your population is very secular. You want to integrate the newcomers seamlessly, minimizing the risk of economic malaise or violence, but you have limited resources. One of your advisers tells you to invest in the refugees' education; another says providing jobs is the key; yet another insists the most important thing is giving the youth opportunities to socialize with local kids. What do you do?

Well, you make your best guess and hope the policy you chose works out. But it might not. Even a policy that yielded great results in another place or time may fail miserably in your particular country under its present circumstances. If that happens, you might find yourself wishing you could hit a giant reset button and run the whole experiment over again, this time choosing a different policy. But of course, you can't experiment like that, not with real people.

You can, however, experiment like that with virtual people. And that's exactly what the Modeling Religion Project does. An international team of computer scientists, philosophers, religion scholars, and others are collaborating to build computer models that they populate with thousands of virtual people, or "agents." As the agents interact with each other and with shifting conditions in their artificial environment, their attributes and beliefs—levels of economic security, of education, of religiosity, and so on—can change. At the outset, the researchers program the agents to mimic the attributes and beliefs of a real country's population using survey data from that country. They also "train" the model on a set of empirically validated social-science rules about how humans tend to interact under various pressures.

And then they experiment: Add in 50,000 newcomers, say, and invest heavily in education. How does the artificial society change? The model tells you. Don't like it? Just hit that reset button and try a different policy.

The goal of the project is to give politicians an empirical tool that will help them assess competing policy options so they can choose the most effective one. It's a noble idea: If leaders can use artificial intelligence to predict which policy will produce the best outcome, maybe we'll end up with a healthier and happier world. But it's also a dangerous idea: What's "best" is in the eye of the beholder, after all.

"Because all our models are transparent and the code is always online," said LeRon Shults, who teaches philosophy and theology at the University of Agder in Norway, "if someone wanted to make people more in-group-y, more anxious about protecting their rights and their group from the threat of others, then they could use the model to [figure out how to] ratchet up anxiety."

The Modeling Religion Project—which has collaborators at Boston's Center for Mind and Culture, and the Virginia Modeling, Analysis, and Simulation Center, as well as the University of Agder—has been running for the past three years, with funding from the John Templeton Foundation. It wrapped up last month. But it's already spawned several spin-off projects.

The one that focuses most on refugees, Modeling Religion in Norway (modrn), is still in its early phases. Led by Shults, it's funded primarily by the Research Council of Norway, which is counting on the model to offer useful advice on how the Norwegian government can best integrate refugees. Norway is an ideal place to do this research, not only because it's currently struggling to integrate Syrians, but also because the country has gathered massive data sets on its population. By using them to calibrate his model, Shults can get more accurate and fine-grained predictions, simulating what will happen in a specific city and even a specific neighborhood.

Another project, Forecasting Religiosity and Existential Security with an Agent-Based Model, examines questions about nonbelief: Why aren't there more atheists? Why is America secularizing at a slower rate than Western Europe? Which conditions would speed up the process of secularization—or, conversely, make a population more religious?

Shults's team tackled these questions using data from the International Social Survey Program conducted between 1991 and 1998. They initialized the model in 1998 and then allowed it to run all the way through 2008. "We were able to predict from that 1998 data—in 22 different countries in Europe, and Japan—whether and how belief in heaven and hell, belief in God, and religious attendance would go up and down over a 10-year period. We were able to predict this in some cases up to three times more accurately than linear regression analysis," Shults said, referring to a general-purpose method of prediction that prior to the team's work was the best alternative.

Using a separate model, Future of Religion and Secular Transitions (forest), the team found that people tend to secularize when four factors are present: existential security (you have enough money and food), personal freedom (you're free to choose whether to believe or not), pluralism (you have a welcoming attitude to diversity), and education (you've got some training in the sciences and humanities). If even one of these factors is absent, the whole secularization process slows down. This, they believe, is why the U.S. is secularizing at a slower rate than Western and Northern Europe.

"The U.S. has found ways to limit the effects of education by keeping it local, and in private schools, anything can happen," said Shults's collaborator, Wesley Wildman, a professor of philosophy and ethics at Boston University. "Lately, there's been encouragement from the highest levels of government to take a less than welcoming cultural attitude to pluralism. These are forms of resistance to secularization."

Another project, Mutually Escalating Religious Violence (merv), aims to identify which conditions make xenophobic anxiety between two different religious groups likely to spiral out of control. As they built this model, the team brought in an outside expert: Monica Toft, an international-relations scholar with no experience in computational modeling but a wealth of expertise in religious extremism.

"They brought me in so I could do a reality check—like, do the [social-science] assumptions behind this model make sense? And then to evaluate whether this tracks with case studies in reality," Toft told me. At first, she said, "I was a little skeptical with this stuff. But I think what surprised me was how well it modeled onto the Gujarat case." She was referring to the 2002 riots that erupted in the Indian state of Gujarat: three bloody days during which Muslims and Hindus clashed violently, resulting in hundreds of deaths on both sides. (According to official figures, 790 Muslims and 254 Hindus were killed.) "When I started looking at the data, I said to LeRon and Wesley, 'Oh my god!' Because I knew the case of Gujarat and what happened there. It matched the model beautifully. It was really exciting."

merv shows that mutually escalating violence is likeliest to occur if there's a small disparity in size between the majority and minority groups (less than a 70/30 split) and if agents experience out-group members as social and contagion threats (they worry that others will be invasive or infectious). It's much less likely to occur if there's a large disparity in size or if the threats agents are experiencing are mostly related to predators or natural hazards.

This might sound intuitive, but having quantitative, empirical data to support social-science hypotheses can help convince policymakers of when and how to act if they want to prevent future outbreaks of violence. And once a model has been shown to track with real-world historical examples, scientists can more plausibly argue that it will yield a trustworthy recommendation when it's fed new situations. Asked what merv has to offer us, Toft said, "We can stop these dynamics. We do not need to allow them to spiral out of control."

To that end, the next step is getting others interested in trying out the models. But that's proven difficult. The research has been published in outlets like the Journal of Cognition and Culture and is under review at Nature, and the team is building an online platform that will allow people with zero programming experience to create agent-based models. Still, Wildman is pessimistic about his own ability to get politicians interested in such a new and highly technical methodology.

"Whenever there's bafflement, you've got a trust problem, and I think there will be a trust problem here," he said. "We're modelers, sociologists, philosophers—we're academic geeks, basically. We're never going to convince them to trust a model." But he believes that policy analysts, acting as bridges between the academic world and the policy world, will be able to convince the politicians. "We're going to get them in the end."

Even harder to sway may be those concerned not with the methodology's technical complications, but with its ethical complications. As Wildman told me, "These models are equal-opportunity insight generators. If you want to go militaristic, then these models tell you what the targets should be."

When you build a model, you can accidentally produce recommendations that you weren't intending. Years ago, Wildman built a model to figure out what makes some extremist groups survive and thrive while others disintegrate. It turned out one of the most important factors is a highly charismatic leader who personally practices what he preaches. "This immediately implied an assassination criterion," he said. "It's basically, leave the groups alone when the leaders are less consistent, [but] kill the leaders of groups that have those specific qualities. It was a shock to discover this dropping out of the model. I feel deeply uncomfortable that one of my models accidentally produced a criterion for killing religious leaders."

The results of that model have been published, so it may already have informed military action. "Is this type of thing being used to figure out criteria for drone killings? I don't know, because there's this giant wall between the secret research in the U.S. and the non-secret side," Wildman said. "I've come to assume that on the secret side they've pretty much already thought of everything we've thought of, because they've got more money and are more focused on those issues. ... But it could be that this model actually took them there. That's a serious ethical conundrum."

The other models raise similar concerns, he said. "The modrn model gives you a recipe for accelerating secularization—and it gives you a recipe for blocking it. You can use it to make everything revert to supernaturalism by messing with some of those key conditions—say, by triggering some ecological disaster. Then everything goes plunging back into pre-secularism. That keeps me up at night."

According to Neil Johnson, a physicist who models terrorism and other extreme behaviors that arise in complex systems, "That's an overstatement of the power of the models." There's no way that removing one factor from a society can reliably be counted on to slow or stop secularization, he said. That may well be true in the model, but "that's a cartoon of the real world." A real human society is so complex that "all the things may be interconnected in a different way than in the model."

Although Johnson said he found the team's research useful and important, he was unimpressed by their claim to have outperformed previous predictive methods. "Linear regression analysis is not very powerful for prediction," he said. "I was a little surprised by the strength of their claims." He cautioned that we should be skeptical about the word prediction in relation to this type of model. Opinion might be better.

"It's great to have as a tool," he said. "It's like, you go to the doctor, they give an opinion. It's always an opinion, we never say a doctor's prediction. Usually, we go with the doctor's opinion because they've seen many cases like this, many humans who come in with the same thing. It's even more of an opinion with these types of models, because they haven't necessarily seen many cases just like it—history mimics the past but doesn't exactly repeat it."

The silver lining here is that if the power of the models is being overstated then so, too, is the ethical concern.

Nevertheless, just like Wildman, Shults told me, "I lose sleep at night on this. ... It is social engineering. It just is—there's no pretending like it's not." But he added that other groups, like Cambridge Analytica, are doing this kind of computational work, too. And various bad actors will do it without transparency or public accountability. "It's going to be done. So not doing it is not the answer." Instead, he and Wildman believe the answer is to do the work with transparency and simultaneously speak out about the ethical danger inherent in it.

"That's why our work here is two-pronged: I'm operating as a modeler and as an ethicist," Wildman said. "It's the best I can do."

The video in this piece appears courtesy of Jenn Lindsay.

We want to hear what you think. Submit a letter to the editor or write to letters@theatlantic.com.

Sigal Samuel
SIGAL SAMUEL is an associate editor at The Atlantic, covering religion and global affairs. She is the author of The Mystics of Mile End.