Friday, February 26, 2016

ANS -- The Governing Cancer of Our Time

This is a really good, and fairly short, article about what has happened to politics.  It implies we are almost ripe for a dictator.  (Trump would be glad to be our dictator.) we must change our culture back to trying to compromise and get along, or we will end up in dire straits.
--Kim


The Opinion Pages | OP-ED COLUMNIST

The Governing Cancer of Our Time

David Brooks FEB. 26, 2016


We live in a big, diverse society. There are essentially two ways to maintain order and get things done in such a society — politics or some form of dictatorship. Either through compromise or brute force. Our founding fathers chose politics.

Politics is an activity in which you recognize the simultaneous existence of different groups, interests and opinions. You try to find some way to balance or reconcile or compromise those interests, or at least a majority of them. You follow a set of rules, enshrined in a constitution or in custom, to help you reach these compromises in a way everybody considers legitimate.

The downside of politics is that people never really get everything they want. It's messy, limited and no issue is ever really settled. Politics is a muddled activity in which people have to recognize restraints and settle for less than they want. Disappointment is normal.

David Brooks

Politics, culture and the social sciences.

But that's sort of the beauty of politics, too. It involves an endless conversation in which we learn about other people and see things from their vantage point and try to balance their needs against our own. Plus, it's better than the alternative: rule by some authoritarian tyrant who tries to govern by clobbering everyone in his way.

As Bernard Crick wrote in his book, "In Defence of Politics," "Politics is a way of ruling divided societies without undue violence."

Over the past generation we have seen the rise of a group of people who are against politics. These groups — best exemplified by the Tea Party but not exclusive to the right — want to elect people who have no political experience. They want "outsiders." They delegitimize compromise and deal-making. They're willing to trample the customs and rules that give legitimacy to legislative decision-making if it helps them gain power.

Ultimately, they don't recognize other people. They suffer from a form of political narcissism, in which they don't accept the legitimacy of other interests and opinions. They don't recognize restraints. They want total victories for themselves and their doctrine.

This antipolitics tendency has had a wretched effect on our democracy. It has led to a series of overlapping downward spirals:

The antipolitics people elect legislators who have no political skills or experience. That incompetence leads to dysfunctional government, which leads to more disgust with government, which leads to a demand for even more outsiders.

The antipolitics people don't accept that politics is a limited activity. They make soaring promises and raise ridiculous expectations. When those expectations are not met, voters grow cynical and, disgusted, turn even further in the direction of antipolitics.

The antipolitics people refuse compromise and so block the legislative process. The absence of accomplishment destroys public trust. The decline in trust makes deal-making harder.

We're now at a point where the Senate says it won't even hold hearings on a presidential Supreme Court nominee, in clear defiance of custom and the Constitution. We're now at a point in which politicians live in fear if they try to compromise and legislate. We're now at a point in which normal political conversation has broken down. People feel unheard, which makes them shout even louder, which further destroys conversation.

Advertisement

Advertisement

And in walks Donald Trump. People say that Trump is an unconventional candidate and that he represents a break from politics as usual. That's not true. Trump is the culmination of the trends we have been seeing for the last 30 years: the desire for outsiders; the bashing style of rhetoric that makes conversation impossible; the decline of coherent political parties; the declining importance of policy; the tendency to fight cultural battles and identity wars through political means.


Trump represents the path the founders rejected. There is a hint of violence undergirding his campaign. There is always a whiff, and sometimes more than a whiff, of "I'd like to punch him in the face."

I printed out a Times list of the insults Trump has hurled on Twitter. The list took up 33 pages. Trump's style is bashing and pummeling. Everyone who opposes or disagrees with him is an idiot, a moron or a loser. The implied promise of his campaign is that he will come to Washington and bully his way through.

Trump's supporters aren't looking for a political process to address their needs. They are looking for a superhero. As the political scientist Matthew MacWilliams found, the one trait that best predicts whether you're a Trump supporter is how high you score on tests that measure authoritarianism.

This isn't just an American phenomenon. Politics is in retreat and authoritarianism is on the rise worldwide. The answer to Trump is politics. It's acknowledging other people exist. It's taking pleasure in that difference and hammering out workable arrangements. As Harold Laski put it, "We shall make the basis of our state consent to disagreement. Therein shall we ensure its deepest harmony."

Follow The New York Times Opinion section onFacebook and Twitter, and sign up for the Opinion Today newsletter

ANS -- UNLESS THE DEMOCRATS RUN SANDERS, A TRUMP NOMINATION MEANS A TRUMP PRESIDENCY

This analysis is different from most you read, but I think it's accurate.  What do you think? It's a bit long, but worth reading the whole thing.  No economics in it, I promise.  
--Kim


FEBRUARY 23, 2016

UNLESS THE DEMOCRATS RUN SANDERS, A TRUMP NOMINATION MEANS A TRUMP PRESIDENCY

Unless the Democrats Run Sanders, A Trump Nomination Means a Trump Presidency

Democrats need to seriously and pragmatically assess their strategy for defeating Trump. A Clinton run would be disastrous; Bernie Sanders is their only hope.

With Donald Trump looking increasingly likely to actually be the Republican nominee for President, it's long past time for the Democrats to start working on a pragmatic strategy to defeat him. Months of complacent, wishful insistences that Trump will disappear have proven false, and with a firm commanding lead in polls and several major primary victories, predictions are increasingly favoring Trump to win the nomination. If Democrats honestly believe, as they say they do, that Trump poses a serious threat to the wellbeing of the country and the lives of minority citizens, that means doing everything possible to keep him out of office. To do that will require them to very quickly unite around a single goal, albeit a counterintuitive one: they must make absolutely sure that Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee for President.

The electability question should be at the center of the Democratic primary. After all, elections are about winning, and high-minded liberal principles mean nothing if one has no chance of actually triumphing in a general election. Hillary Clinton has been right to emphasize that the pragmatic achievement of goals should be the central concern of a presidential candidate, and that Bernie Sanders's supporters often behave as if this is immaterial.

Instinctively, Hillary Clinton has long seemed by far the more electable of the two Democratic candidates. She is, after all, an experienced, pragmatic moderate, whereas Sanders is a raving, arm-flapping elderly Jewish socialist from Vermont. Clinton is simply closer to the American mainstream, thus she is more attractive to a broader swath of voters. Sanders campaigners have grown used to hearing the heavy-hearted lament "I like Bernie, I just don't think he can win." And in typical previous American elections, this would be perfectly accurate.

But this is far from a typical previous American election. And recently, everything about the electability calculus has changed, due to one simple fact: Donald Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee for President. Given this reality, every Democratic strategic question must operate not on the basis of abstract electability against a hypothetical candidate, but specific electability against the actual Republican nominee, Donald Trump.

Here, a Clinton match-up is highly likely to be an unmitigated electoral disaster, whereas a Sanders candidacy stands a far better chance. Every one of Clinton's (considerable) weaknesses plays to every one of Trump's strengths, whereas every one of Trump's (few) weaknesses plays to every one of Sanders's strengths. From a purely pragmatic standpoint, running Clinton against Trump is a disastrous, suicidal proposition.

Sanders supporters have lately been arguing that their candidate is more electable than people think, and they have some support from the available polling. In a number of hypotheticals, Sanders does better than Clinton at beating Trump, and his "unfavorable" ratings among voters are a good deal lower than Clinton's. In response to this, however, Clinton supporters insist that polling at this stage means very little, and since Bernie is not well known and there has not been a national attack campaign directed at him from the right yet, his supporters do not account for the drop in support that will occur when voters realize he is on the fringes. Imagine, they say, how viciously the right will attack Sanders's liberal record.

Clinton's people are right to point out that these polls mean very little; after all, Sanders's entire campaign success is a caution against placing too much weight on early polling. And they are especially right to emphasize that we should visualize how the campaign by conservatives will realistically play out, rather than attempting to divine the future from highly fallible polling numbers. But it's precisely when we try to envision how the real dynamics of the campaign will transpire that we see just how disastrous a Clinton-Trump fight will be for Clinton.

Her supporters insist that she has already been "tried and tested" against all the attacks that can be thrown at her. But this is not the case; she has never been subjected to the full brunt of attacks that come in a general presidential election. Bernie Sanders has ignored most tabloid dirt, treating it as a sensationalist distraction from real issues ("Enough with the damned emails!") But for Donald Trump, sensationalist distractions are the whole game. He will attempt to crucify her. And it is very, very likely that he will succeed.

Trump's political dominance is highly dependent on his idiosyncratic, audacious method of campaigning. He deals almost entirely in amusing, outrageous, below-the-belt personal attacks, and is skilled at turning public discussions away from the issues and toward personalities (He/she's a "loser," "phony," "nervous," "hypocrite," "incompetent.") If Trump does have to speak about the issues, he makes himself sound foolish, because he doesn't know very much. Thus he requires the media not to ask him difficult questions, and depends on his opponents' having personal weaknesses and scandals that he can merrily, mercilessly exploit.

This campaigning style makes Hillary Clinton Donald Trump's dream opponent. She gives him an endless amount to work with. The emails, Benghazi, Whitewater, Iraq, the Lewinsky scandal, ChinagateTravelgate, the missing law firm recordsJeffrey EpsteinKissingerMarc RichHaitiClinton Foundation tax errorsClinton Foundation conflicts of interest"We were broke when we left the White House," Goldman Sachs… There is enough material in Hillary Clinton's background for Donald Trump to run with six times over.

The defense offered by Clinton supporters is that none of these issues actually amount to anything once you look at them carefully. But this is completely irrelevant; all that matters is the fodder they would provide for the Trump machine. Who is going to be looking carefully? In the time you spend trying to clear up the basic facts of Whitewater, Trump will have made five more allegations.

Even a skilled campaigner would have a very difficult time parrying such endless attacks by Trump. Even the best campaigner would find it impossible to draw attention back to actual substantive policy issues, and would spend their every moment on the defensive. But Hillary Clinton is neither the best campaigner nor even a skilled one. In fact, she is a dreadful campaigner. She may be a skilled policymaker, but on the campaign trail she makes constant missteps and never realizes things have gone wrong until it's too late.

Everyone knows this. Even among Democratic party operatives, she's acknowledged as "awkward and uninspiring on the stump," carrying "Bill's baggage with none of Bill's warmth." New York magazine described her "failing to demonstrate the most elementary political skills, much less those learned at Toastmasters or Dale Carnegie." Last year the White House was panicking at her levels of electoral incompetence, her questionable decisionmaking, and her inclination for taking sleazy shortcuts. More recently, noting Sanders's catch-up in the polls, The Washington Post's Jennifer Rubin said that she was a "rotten candidate" whose attacks on Sanders made no sense, and that "at some point, you cannot blame the national mood or a poor staff or a brilliant opponent for Hillary Clinton's campaign woes." Yet in a race against Trump, Hillary will be handicapped not only by her feeble campaigning skills, but the fact that she will have a sour national mood, a poor staff, and a brilliant opponent.

Every Democrat should take some time to fairly, dispassionately examine Clinton's track record as a campaigner. Study how the '08 campaign was handled, and how this one has gone. Assess her strengths and weaknesses with as little bias or prejudice as possible. Then picture the race against Trump, and think about how it will unfold.

It's easy to see that Trump has every single advantage. Because the Republican primary will be over, he can come at her from both right and left as he pleases. As the candidate who thundered against the Iraq War at the Republican debate, he can taunt Clinton over her support for it. He will paint her as a member of the corrupt political establishment, and will even offer proof: "Well, I know you can buy politicians, because I bought Senator Clinton. I gave her money, she came to my wedding." He can make it appear that Hillary Clinton can be bought, that he can't, and that he is in charge. It's also hard to defend against, because it appears to be partly true. Any denial looks like a lie, thus making Hillary's situation look even worse. And then, when she stumbles, he will mock her as incompetent.

Charges of misogyny against Trump won't work. He is going to fill the press with the rape and harassment allegations against Bill Clinton and Hillary's role in discrediting the victims (something that made even Lena Dunham deeply queasy.) He can always remind people that Hillary Clinton referred to Monica Lewinsky as a "narcissistic loony toon." Furthermore, since Trump is not an anti-Planned Parenthood zealot (being the only one willing to stick up for women's health in a room full of Republicans), it will be hard for Clinton to paint him as the usual anti-feminist right-winger.

Trump will capitalize on his reputation as a truth-teller, and be vicious about both Clinton's sudden changes of position (e.g. the switch on gay marriage, plus the affected economic populism of her run against Sanders) and her perceived dishonesty. One can already imagine the monologue:

"She lies so much. Everything she says is a lie. I've never seen someone who lies so much in my life. Let me tell you three lies she's told. She made up a story about how she was ducking sniper fire! There was no sniper fire. She made it up! How do you forget a thing like that? She said she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary, the guy who climbed Mount Everest. He hadn't even climbed it when she was born! Total lie! She lied about the emails, of course, as we all know, and is probably going to be indicted. You know she said there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq! It was a lie! Thousands of American soldiers are dead because of her. Not only does she lie, her lies kill people. That's four lies, I said I'd give you three. You can't even count them. You want to go on PolitiFact, see how many lies she has? It takes you an hour to read them all! In fact, they ask her, she doesn't even say she hasn't lied. They asked her straight up, she says she usually tries to tell the truth! Ooooh, she tries! Come on! This is a person, every single word out of her mouth is a lie. Nobody trusts her. Check the polls, nobody trusts her. Yuge liar."

Where does she even begin to respond to this? Some of it's true, some of it isn't, but the more she tries to defensively parse it ("There's been no suggestion I'm going to be indicted! And I didn't say I usually tried to tell the truth, I said I always tried and usually succeeded") the deeper she sinks into the hole.

Trump will bob, weave, jab, and hook. He won't let up. And because Clinton actually has lied, and actually did vote for the Iraq War, and actually is hyper-cosy with Wall Street, and actually does change her positions based on expediency, all she can do is issue further implausible denials, which will further embolden Trump. Nor does she have a single offensive weapon at her disposal, since every legitimate criticism of Trump's background (inconsistent political positions, shady financial dealings, pattern of deception) is equally applicable to Clinton, and he knows how to make such things slide off him, whereas she does not.

The whole Clinton campaign has been unraveling from its inception. It fell apart completely in 2008, and has barely held together against the longest of long shot candidates. No matter how likely she may be to win the primary, things do not bode well for a general election, whomever the nominee may be. As H.A. Goodman put it in Salon:

Please name the last person to win the presidency alongside an ongoing FBI investigation, negative favorability ratings, questions about character linked to continual flip-flops, a dubious money trail of donors, and the genuine contempt of the rival political party.

The "contempt" bit of this is obviously silly; we all know levels of contempt have reached their world-historic high point in the Republican attitude toward Obama. But the rest is true: it's incredibly hard to run somebody very few people like and expect to win. With the jocular, shrewd Donald Trump as an opponent, that holds true a million times over.

Nor are the demographics going to be as favorable to Clinton as she thinks. Trump's populism will have huge resonance among the white working class in both red and blue states; he might even peel away her black support. And Trump has already proven false the prediction that he would alienate Evangelicals through his vulgarity and his self-deification. Democrats are insistently repeating their belief that a Trump nomination will mobilize liberals to head to the polls like never before, but with nobody particularly enthusiastic for Clinton's candidacy, it's not implausible that a large number of people will find both options so unappealing that they stay home.

A Clinton/Trump match should therefore not just worry Democrats. It should terrify them. They should be doing everything possible to avoid it. A Trump/Sanders contest, however, looks very different indeed.

Trump's various unique methods of attack would instantly be made far less useful in a run against Sanders. All of the most personal charges (untrustworthiness, corruption, rank hypocrisy) are much more difficult to make stick. The rich history of dubious business dealings is nonexistent. None of the sleaze in which Trump traffics can be found clinging to Bernie. Trump's standup routine just has much less obvious personal material to work with. Sanders is a fairly transparent guy; he likes the social safety net, he doesn't like oligarchy, he's a workaholic who sometimes takes a break to play basketball, and that's pretty much all there is to it. Contrast that with the above-noted list of juicy Clinton tidbits.

Trump can't clown around nearly as much at a debate with Sanders, for the simple reason that Sanders is dead set on keeping every conversation about the plight of America's poor under the present economic system. If Trump tells jokes and goofs off here, he looks as if he's belittling poor people, not a magnificent idea for an Ivy League trust fund billionaire running against a working class public servant and veteran of the Civil Rights movement. Instead, Trump will be forced to do what Hillary Clinton has been forced to do during the primary, namely to make himself sound as much like Bernie Sanders as possible. For Trump, having to get serious and take the Trump Show off the air will be devastating to his unique charismatic appeal.

Against Trump, Bernie can play the same "experience" card that Hillary plays. After all, while Sanders may look like a policy amateur next to Clinton, next to Trump he looks positively statesmanlike. Sanders can point to his successful mayoralty and long history as Congress's "Amendment King" as evidence of his administrative bona fides. And Sanders's lack of foreign policy knowledge won't hurt him when facing someone with even less. Sanders will be enough of an outsider for Trump's populist anti-Washington appeal to be powerless, but enough of an insider to appear an experienced hand at governance.

Trump is an attention-craving parasite, and such creatures are powerful only when indulged and paid attention to. Clinton will be forced to pay attention to Trump because of his constant evocation of her scandals. She will attempt to go after him. She will, in other words, feed the troll. Sanders, by contrast, will almost certainly behave as if Trump isn't even there. He is unlikely to rise to Trump's bait, because Sanders doesn't even care to listen to anything that's not about saving social security or the disappearing middle class. He will almost certainly seem as if he barely knows who Trump is. Sanders's commercials will be similar to those he has run in the primary, featuring uplifting images of America, aspirational sentiments about what we can be together, and moving testimonies from ordinary Americans. Putting such genuine dignity and good feeling against Trump's race-baiting clownishness will be like finally pouring water on the Wicked Witch. Hillary Clinton cannot do this; with her, the campaign will inevitably descend into the gutter, and the unstoppable bloated Trump menace will continue to grow ever larger.

Sanders is thus an almost perfect secret weapon against Trump. He can pull off the only maneuver that is capable of neutralizing Trump: ignoring him and actually keeping the focus on the issues. Further, Sanders will have the advantage of an enthusiastic army of young volunteers, who will be strongly dedicated to the mission of stalling Trump's quest for the presidency. The Sanders team is extremely technically skilled; everything from their television commercials to their rally organizing to their inspired teasing is pulled off well. The Sanders team is slick and adaptable, the Clinton team is ropey and fumbling.

There's only one real way to attack Bernie Sanders, and we all know it: he's a socialist fantasist out of touch with the Realities of Economics. But Trump is in the worst possible position to make this criticism. Economists have savaged Trump's own proposals as sheer lunacy, using every word deployed against Bernie and then some. And while from a D.C. policy veteran like Clinton, charges of a failure to understand how political decisionmaking works may sound reasonable, Sanders is a successful legislator who has run a city; the host of The Apprentice may have a more difficult time portraying a long-serving congressman as being unfamiliar with how Washington works.

Of course, the American people are still jittery about socialism. But they're less jittery than they used to be, and Bernie does a good job portraying socialism as being about little more than paid family leave and sick days (a debatable proposition, but one beside the point.) His policies are popular and appeal to the prevailing national sentiment. It's a risk, certainly. But the Soviet Union bogeyman is long gone, and everyone gets called a socialist these days no matter what their politics. It's possible that swing voters dislike socialism more than they dislike Hillary Clinton, but in a time of economic discontent one probably shouldn't bet on it.

One thing that should be noted is that all of this analysis applies solely to a race against Trump; the situation changes drastically and unpredictably if Marco Rubio is the nominee or Michael Bloomberg enters the race. Yet the moment, it doesn't look like Marco Rubio will be nominated, but that Donald Trump will be. And in that case, Clinton is toast.

Some in the media have rushed to declare Sanders's campaign moribund in the wake of his recent loss in Nevada. This is absurd; after all, out of 50 states, only three have voted, one being a tie, one being a major Sanders win, and one being a small Clinton win. The media has dishonestly pointed to Hillary Clinton's higher superdelegate count as evidence of her strong lead, despite knowing full well that superdelegates are highly unlikely to risk tearing the party apart by taking the nomination out of voters' hands, and are thus mostly a formality. The press has also crafted a narrative about Sanders "slipping behind," ignoring the fact that Sanders has been behind from the very start; not for a moment has he been in front.

But even if it was correct to say that Sanders was "starting to" lose (instead of progressively losing less and less), this should only motivate all Democrats to work harder to make sure he is nominated. One's support for Sanders should increase in direct proportion to one's fear of Trump. And if Trump is the nominee, Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race and throw her every ounce of energy into supporting Sanders. If this does not occur, the resulting consequences for Muslims and Mexican immigrants of a Trump presidency will be fully the responsibility of Clinton and the Democratic Party. To run a candidate who can't win, or who is a very high-risk proposition, is to recklessly play with the lives of millions of people. So much depends on stopping Trump; a principled defeat will mean nothing to the deported, or to those being roughed up by Trump's goon squads or executed with pigs' blood-dipped bullets.

Donald Trump is one of the most formidable opponents in the history of American politics. He is sharp, shameless, and likable. If he is going to be the nominee, Democrats need to think very seriously about how to defeat him. If they don't, he will be the President of the United States, which will have disastrous repercussions for religious and racial minorities and likely for everyone else, too. Democrats should consider carefully how a Trump/Clinton matchup would develop, and how a Trump/Sanders matchup would. For their sake, hopefully they will realize that the only way to prevent a Trump presidency is the nomination of Bernie Sanders.

Nathan J. Robinson is a Social Policy PhD student at Harvard University, as well as an attorney and children's book author. He is the editor of Current Affairs.

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

ANS -- The price of obstruction: Republicans gamble that blocking Obama’s SCOTUS nominee won’t hurt them too badly

In case you haven't figured this out already, here is what is happening with the Supreme Court nomination process.  I think it's very important that the Republicans do not win the White House in November.  
--Kim


WEDNESDAY, FEB 24, 2016 02:56 AM PST

The price of obstruction: Republicans gamble that blocking Obama's SCOTUS nominee won't hurt them too badly

Republicans understand the benefits of Supreme Court obstruction and hope that they outweigh the political cost

  Follow

TOPICS: SENATE REPUBLICANSSENATE JUDICIARY COMMITTEEBARACK OBAMASUPREME COURTANTONIN SCALIAJUDICIAL NOMINATIONSU.S. SENATEMITCH MCCONNELLMARK KIRKKELLY AYOTTE2016 ELECTIONS,

The price of obstruction: Republicans gamble that blocking Obama's SCOTUS nominee won't hurt them too badlyMitch McConnell (Credit: AP/J. Scott Applewhite)

There was never any real uncertainty over how Republicans in Congress would react to President Obama's promise to nominate a successor to recently deceased Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. With the ideological makeup of the court in the balance and the future of the conservative policy agenda on the line, the best play for the Senate GOP has always been to delay, obstruct and hope that the November election would send a Republican to the White House who could then fill the vacancy and restore the Supreme Court's 5-4 conservative majority. And, as expected, that is precisely how they're planning to proceed.

The Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee sent a letter to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Tuesday stating flat-out that "this Committee will not hold hearings on any Supreme Court nominee until after our next President is sworn in on January 20, 2017." The reasons they enumerate for pursuing this course are nonsensical – according to the letter, "the American people are presented with an exceedingly rare opportunity to decide, in a very real and concrete way, the direction the Court will take over the next generation." The "exceedingly rare opportunity" they're referring to is, of course, the presidential election, which happens regularly once every four years. What they're really arguing, without justification, is that the last election (in which Americans empowered Barack Obama to determine "the direction the Court will take over the next generation") matters less than the election that hasn't happened yet.

But the fake reasons for why they're doing this don't really matter. What matters is that they've set themselves on a course of maximalist obstructionism. The Judiciary Committee is refusing to hold hearings, and top Senate Republicans are saying that they'll refuse to even meet with whomever Obama nominates. They want the president's nominee to be a nonentity, and they want to keep their criticisms focused exclusively on Barack Obama and the Democrats. The best way to do that is to deny the nominee even the slightest hint of legitimacy.

While this may be the best play for Republicans, it's still risky as hell and fraught with political danger. The Republicans are defending a large number of Senate seats this election cycle, a number of which are in blue states, and they've just guaranteed that Republican obstructionism and congressional dysfunction will be campaign issues going forward. We've already seen vulnerable Republican Mark Kirk of Illinois adopt a much more accommodating posture toward the president on this, likely because he realizes how hard-line opposition to the president could imperil his reelection chances. In New Hampshire, Democrat Maggie Hassan is slamming Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte for siding with the obstructionists.

And the White House is, in all likelihood, going to raise as much hell over this as it possibly can. Obama is going to pick his nominee, and he's going to make sure the country knows the personal and legal background of the person he chooses. They're going to hit Senate Republicans as hard and as often as they can for refusing to even have a sit-down with the manifestly qualified jurist the president selected. They're going to remind reporters as often as is necessary how many days the nomination has languished because of Republican intransigence.

The Republicans won't have an effective counterargument to this onslaught. The position they've backed themselves into is that the president should not even bother to present a nominee, which is self-evidently ludicrous. And their stated reasons for obstruction – a solemn commitment to democracy and the need to "give the people a voice" – are obvious bullshit. It's about maintaining power at all costs. And since they've adopted a maximalist posture, they can't relent even in the slightest. The second they give Obama's nominee the time of day, they'll have allowed that he or she is worthy of attention from the Senate, and then they'll be in the even less defensible position of having to reject a qualified Supreme Court nominee for no other reason than antipathy toward the president. Republicans are stuck with unflinching obstruction, and they'll be absorbing hits for months because of it.

They almost certainly understand this, and they're going down this road anyway because they also understand what is at stake. Senate Republicans have made a simple calculation: blanket obstruction guarantees that Obama will not get another lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court and leaves open the chance that a Republican will nominate Scalia's successor, and those benefits outweigh the short-term political damage they'll take for being hyper-partisan obstructionists. What they have to hope is that Republicans will nominate a presidential candidate who can win, and that this strategy doesn't end up costing them their Senate majority.

Simon Maloy
Simon Maloy is Salon's political writer. Email him at smaloy@salon.com. Follow him on Twitter at @SimonMaloy.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

ANS -- New Analysis Shows Problematic Boom In Higher Ed Administrators

Here's an interesting article about why universities have to charge more.  Do you think this is accurate? 
--Kim


New Analysis Shows Problematic Boom In Higher Ed Administrators

 02/06/2014 11:58 am ET | Updated Feb 06, 2014
2.4 K
  • Jon MarcusNew England Center for Investigative Reporting
ASSOCIATED PRESS

The number of non-academic administrative and professional employees at U.S. colleges and universities has more than doubled in the last 25 years, vastly outpacing the growth in the number of students or faculty, according to an analysis of federal figures.

The disproportionate increase in the number of university staffers who neither teach nor conduct research has continued unabated in more recent years, and slowed only slightly since the start of the economic downturn, during which time colleges and universities have contended that a dearth of resources forced them to sharply raise tuition.

In all, from 1987 until 2011-12—the most recent academic year for which comparable figures are available—universities and colleges collectively added 517,636 administrators and professional employees, or an average of 87 every working day, according to the analysis of federal figures, by the New England Center for Investigative Reporting in collaboration with the nonprofit, nonpartisan social-science research group the American Institutes for Research.

"There's just a mind-boggling amount of money per student that's being spent on administration," said Andrew Gillen, a senior researcher at the institutes. "It raises a question of priorities."

Universities have added these administrators and professional employees even as they've substantially shifted classroom teaching duties from full-time faculty to less-expensive part-time adjunct faculty and teaching assistants, the figures show.

"They've increased their hiring of part-time faculty to try and cut costs," said Donna Desrochers, a principal researcher at the Delta Cost Project, which studies higher-education spending. "Yet other factors that are going on, including the hiring of these other types of non-academic employees, have undercut those savings."

Part-time faculty and teaching assistants now account for half of instructional staffs at colleges and universities, up from one-third in 1987, the figures show.

During the same period, the number of administrators and professional staff has more than doubled. That's a rate of increase more than twice as fast as the growth in the number of students.

It's not possible to tell exactly how much the rise in administrators and professional employees has contributed to the increase in the cost of tuition and fees, which has also almost doubled in inflation-adjusted dollars since 1987 at four-year private, nonprofit universities and colleges, according to the College Board. Those costs have also nearly tripled at public four-year universities—a higher price rise than for any other sector of the economy in that period, including healthcare.

But critics say the unrelenting addition of administrators and professional staffs can't help but to have driven this steep increase.

At the very least, they say, the continued hiring of nonacademic employees belies university presidents' insistence that they are doing everything they can to improve efficiency and hold down costs.

"It's a lie. It's a lie. It's a lie," said Richard Vedder, an economist and director of theCenter for College Affordability and Productivity.

"I wouldn't buy a used car from a university president," said Vedder. "They'll say, 'We're making moves to cut costs,' and mention something about energy-efficient lightbulbs, and ignore the new assistant to the assistant to the associate vice provost they just hired."

The figures are particularly dramatic at private, nonprofit universities, whose numbers of administrators alone have doubled, while their numbers of professional employees have more than doubled.

Rather than improving productivity as measured by the ratio of employees to students, private universities have seen their productivity decline, adding 12 employees per 1,000 full-time students since 1987, the federal figures show.

"While the rest of the economy was shrinking overhead, higher education was investing heavily in more overhead," said Robert Martin, an economist at Centre College in Kentucky who studies university finance who said staffing per students is a valid way to judge efficiency improvements or declines.

The ratio of nonacademic employees to faculty has also doubled. There are now two nonacademic employees at public and two and a half at private universities and colleges for every one full-time, tenure-track member of the faculty.

"In no other industry would overhead costs be allowed to grow at this rate—executives would lose their jobs," analysts at the financial management firm Bain & Company wrote in a 2012 white paper for its clients and others about administrative spending in higher education.

Universities and university associations blame the increased hiring on such things as government regulations and demands from students and their families—including students who arrive unprepared for college-level work—for such services as remedial education, advising, and mental-health counseling.

"All of those things pile up, and contribute to this increase," said Dan King, president of the American Association of University Administrators.

"I think there's legitimate criticism" of the growth in hiring of administrators and other nonacademic employees, said King. "At the same time, you can't lay all of the responsibility for that on the universities."

There are "thousands" of regulations governing the distribution of financial aid alone, he said. "And probably every college or university that's accredited, they've got at least one person with a major portion of their time dedicated to that, and in some cases whole office staffs. These aren't bad things to do, but somebody's got to do them."

Since 1987, universities have also started or expanded departments devoted to marketing, diversity, disability, sustainability, security, environmental health, recruiting, technology, and fundraising, and added new majors and graduate and athletics programs, satellite campuses, and conference centers.

Some of these, they say—such as beefed-up fundraising and marketing offices—pay for themselves, and sustainability efforts save money through energy efficiency.

Others "often show up in student referenda, to build or add services," said George Pernsteiner, president of the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association. "The students vote for them. Students and their families have asked for more, and are paying more to get it."

Pressure to help students graduate more quickly—or at all—has also driven the increase in professional employees "to try to more effectively serve the students who are coming in today," Pernsteiner said.

But naysayers point out that the doubling of administrative and professional staffs doesn't seem to have improved universities' performance. Since 2002, the proportion of four-year bachelor's degree-seeking students who graduate within even six years, for instance, has barely inched up, from 55 percent to 58 percent,U.S. Department of Education figures show.

"If we have these huge spikes in student services spending or in other professional categories, we should see improvements in what they do, and I personally haven't seen that," Gillen said.

Martin said it's true that adding services beyond teaching and research is fueling the growth of campus payrolls. But he said universities don't have to provide those services themselves. "They can outsource them, the way that corporations do."

To provide such things as security and counseling, said Martin, "You can hire outside firms, on a contract basis with competitive bidding. All these activities are a distraction from what the institution is supposed to be doing."

Universities and colleges continued adding employees even after the beginning of the economic downturn, though at a slightly slower rate, the federal figures show.

"Institutions have said that they were hurting, so I would have thought that staffing overall would go down," Desrochers said. "But it didn't."

There's also been a massive hiring boom in central offices of public university systems and universities with more than one campus, according to the figures. The number of employees in central system offices has increased six-fold since 1987, and the number of administrators in them by a factor of more than 34.

One example, the central office of the California State University System, now has a budget bigger than those of three of the system's 23 campuses.

"None of them have reduced campus administrative burdens at all," said King, who said he is particularly frustrated by this trend. "They've added a layer of bureaucracy, and in 95 percent of the cases it's an unnecessary bureaucracy and a counterproductive one."

Centralization has been promoted as a way to reduce costs, but Vedder points out that it has not appeared to reduce the rate of hiring of administrators and professional staffs on campus—or of incessant spikes in tuition.

"It's almost Orwellian," said Vedder. "They'll say, 'We'll save money if we centralize.' Then they hire a provost or associate provost or an assistant business manager in charge of shared services, and then that person hires an assistant, and you end up with more people than you started with."

In higher education, "Everyone now is a chief," he said. "And there are a lot fewer Indians."

This story was prepared by the New England Center for Investigative Reporting, a nonprofit news center based at Boston University and WGBH Radio/TV.