Wednesday, April 11, 2018

ANS -- How 12 experts would end inequality if they ran America

This is a fascinating idea.  It's a long article, but the first part is the list and the rest is expanding on the list.  So you can just read the list, and go back and see the reasoning at your leisure.  
--Kim


How 12 experts would end inequality if they ran America


Security guards at the elite business conference in Switzerland. (Fabrice Coffrini/AFP/Getty Images)

Imagine you had complete control of the U.S. government: What one thing would you do to reduce the country's staggering economic inequality?

It's no small task: The 400 richest Americans control more wealth than the poorest 80 million households, and as the richest citizens continue to capture the lion's share of new wealth — the top 5 percent has captured 74 percent of the wealth created in this country since 1982 — the situation is only growing more extreme.

But while there's consensus that America is a wildly unequal country, there's broad disagreement on what, if anything, should be done to address that. That's certainly true in Congress, where disagreement and deadlock have consigned meaningful action on inequality to the realm of the hypothetical.

That doesn't mean we shouldn't ask what could happen. And in that spirit, we asked experts from across the ideological spectrum what they would do to address inequality if they were king (or queen) for a day.

Their ideas included a sovereign wealth fund for all Americans, new trusts for every American baby, a national infrastructure program — and even forced deportation.

Click on the link below to read the proposal that catches your eye, or scroll through to read them all:

I. Massive expansion of local housing stock (Will Wilkinson, Niskanen Center);

II. Universal access to child care, funded by a tax on capital (Heather Boushey, Washington Center for Equitable Growth);

III. Ship the 1 percent to Venezuela (David Azerrad, Heritage Foundation);

IV. A big boost to union rights, universal social wealth fund (Matt Bruenig, People's Policy Project);

V. Create a trust for every American baby (Darrick Hamilton, the New School);

VI. Pick up the antitrust stick and wield it (Marshall Steinbaum, Roosevelt Institute);

VII. Dramatically expand Social Security (Valerie Wilson, Economic Policy Institute);

VIII. Give every American a federal savings account (Ernie Tedeschi, former Treasury economist);

IX. Rein in Wall Street, crack down on white-collar crime (Stephanie Kelton, Stony Brook University);

X. A national infrastructure program, funded by the 1 percent (Robert Frank, Cornell University);

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XI. Get government out of the way, repeal rules and regulations (Grover Norquist, Americans for Tax Reform);

XII. A federal tax credit for first-time home buyers (Signe-Mary McKernan, Urban Institute).



Idea 1: Get states and cities to massively expand housing


What if the rent was not too high? Under Will Wilkinson-topia, it might not be. (Paul Sakuma/AP)

Will Wilkinson, vice president of policy at the Niskanen Center, a libertarian-leaning think tank:
The biggest budget line for poorer families is rent, and the rent is too damned high.

Wages have barely budged in decades, yet housing costs have soared in the bigger cities in which most Americans live, because restrictive municipal zoning and land-use policy have prevented housing supply from keeping up with demand. When rent takes an ever-larger chunk of workers' paychecks, savings and wealth accumulation rates go down. However, older and wealthier home-owning Americans have been greatly enriched by the same restrictions in housing supply that make it tough for everyone else to save.

Massively increasing big-city housing supply would bring down rents, making it easier for the urban working and middle classes to build nest eggs. At the same time, it would slow or reverse the rise in home values, keeping the wealthiest from pulling even further ahead.


If I were king for a day, I would dangle a huge pot of federal infrastructure money in front of states, and then condition those delicious, fat federal grants on big cities in those states hitting growth targets for housing supply. If big cities fail to add new housing stock fast enough, they and the states they are in will lose many, many, many billions in federal funds for new and upgraded infrastructure.

The political power of NIMBY-ism ("not in my back yard") has made it nearly impossible to tackle rising housing costs, and the wealth inequality it produces, at the municipal level. But a federal lever can offset the self-seeking forces of NIMBY-ism by giving city and state governments a strong incentive to cut the red tape that keeps housing supply lagging so far behind demand. Tying strings to federal infrastructure money in this way ought to be constitutional, too, since the economic value of infrastructure in and around cities is directly related to how many people can afford to live in them.



Idea 2: Universal access to child care
Heather Boushey, executive director and chief economist at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth:
We tax capital in this country at a lower rate than we tax labor income, or the income of people who work. People living off business and investment returns pay less in taxes; that money could be easily redirected to give every American family access to early child care and education.

This would be a major investment in our nation to the benefit of everyone. The United States used to have some of the highest labor force participation rates of women in the developed world. Now we don't. Researchers have found it's about our lack of work-life policy, with a big part of that being child care. We're not making those investments.

There's also a lot of evidence U.S. kids are falling behind in terms of test scores and in school. A big part of that is lack of investments in early childhood — a national child-care program would help us catch up.

Most people have children when they're young and not making a lot of money, which means they can't invest in education for their children from birth to age 5. I'm not saying we should necessarily take elementary school back to 6 months. But what we want is to ensure every child has access to it.


In the District, for instance, we have universal pre-K in different settings and different communities, and parents have choices. But we should make it available to all families — and use higher taxes on capital to pay for it.



Idea 3: Ship the 1 percent to Venezuela


This airplane, for instance, could be used to transport rich Americans to another country. (Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images)

David Azerrad, director of the B. Kenneth Simon Center for Principles and Politics at the Heritage Foundation, a right-leaning think tank:
A few years ago, I wrote a satirical piece called "Exile the Rich." Because do you know how you solve inequality overnight? You round up the top 10 percent of the top 1 percent and send them to whomever will take them — Venezuela or Belgium or South Korea.

Presto: inequality problem solved.

Indeed, the rising inequality in the past four decades has been driven by a spectacular rise in the earnings of the top 0.1 percent; inequality in the 99.9 percent has not changed that much. Exiling the rich would get us back to the supposedly wonderful world we inhabited in the 1970s, according to New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

Here's the thing: It wouldn't improve life for a single American. I don't deny that Americans, especially Americans with low levels of education, confront very serious problems. The problem is linking those problems to the statistical abstraction that is rising income inequality. You could solve "the inequality problem," and it wouldn't do anything to help the millions of men who have dropped out of the labor force, or improve America's failing schools, or stem the opioid epidemic, or address any other of the challenges facing the poor and the working class.


It's also important to keep in mind that as far as we can tell, upward mobility has not declined in America even as inequality has risen. It's no harder to move up the income ladder today than it was 30 years ago.

If I were king for a day in America, I'd abdicate because we live in a republic. But if you forced me to remain on the throne, there are much more serious problems I'd deal with than income inequality, and I hope my friends on the left would do so, too.



Idea 4: Give a big boost to union rights, start universal social wealth fund


In Bruenig-topia, workers would have stronger union rights, and every American would have a stake in a sovereign wealth fund. They could still wear cool hats like the ones in the photo above. (James Fassinger/Reuters)

Matt Bruenig, founder of the People's Policy Project, a left-leaning think tank:
If the United States distributed its national income evenly, every person would receive $44,500, and every family of four would receive $178,000. Because the country does not distribute its income evenly, the United States is instead home to some of the highest levels of inequality, poverty and absolute deprivation in the developed world.

When thinking about how to trim inequality in the United States, it is helpful to divide income into three buckets: income from working, income from owning and income from social benefits. Mathematically speaking, inequality can be reduced only by evening out the distribution of income in each bucket, by moving income from disequalizing buckets to equalizing buckets, or by doing some combination of the two.

With this framework in mind, the first thing I would do is overhaul the nation's labor law in a way that promotes mass unionization across the entire labor market. Under the new labor regime, all of the workers and employers in each sector would bargain collectively to set the terms and conditions of employment for that sector. By strengthening workers' bargaining power and requiring wages to be set collectively, this reform would shift some income from owners to workers while also compressing the distribution of income among workers.


The second thing I would do is socialize the ownership of income-generating assets such as stocks, bonds and real estate. The government would accomplish this by creating a social wealth fund, giving every adult in the country one share of ownership in the fund, and using money from quantitative easing, sovereign debt or taxes to fill up the fund with assets purchased on the open market.

Once established, the social wealth fund would pay out its investment returns through an annual dividend to its owners, i.e., every adult in the country. By moving assets out of the hands of rich families and into the hands of a collectively owned wealth fund, this change would significantly trim down wealth inequality and flatten out the distribution of the income that comes from owning.



Idea 5: Create a trust for every American baby, race-based reparations


(The Image Bank/Getty Images)

Darrick Hamilton, professor of economics and urban policy at the New School:
National child trust accounts, "baby bonds" program, race-based reparations. Most Americans that are middle-class (as defined by wealth) generate their assets in a passive way — they own a home that appreciates over their life; they get a college degree without being saddled with debt, which gives them access to a managerial or professional job with relatively higher wages and saving instruments for retirement; or they end up with a small business that required some capital finance in the first place.

The source of asset inequality is that some young adults have access to capital that will passively appreciate over their lifetime and give them economic security and agency, and others do not.

This has nothing to do with individual behavior, attitudes or norms. It's simply situated in the familial position in which you are born — a birthright. So why don't we endow every American with a trust at birth?

The amount of that trust will be based on the wealth position of the family in which they are born. The average account would be about $20,000, but if a child is born into the most wealth-poor family, they would receive a trust of $50,000 to $60,000. If they're born among the most affluent, say the offspring of Oprah or Bill Gates, they would get a nominal endowment of about $500. The program would be inclusive, and everyone would have a stake — creating a "stakeholder society." [You can read more about this proposal here.]


The key objective is to provide everyone with access to capital ("a stake"), so they may exercise financial agency over their lives. Baby bonds are an individual capital approach, but, similarly, tuition-free public colleges and universities could also empower young adults without the burden of debt.

The paramount indicator of racial disparity is wealth. The most parsimonious, just and direct way to address racial economic disparity would be direct reparations. But distribution of reparations does more than just redress racial economic disparity; it also acknowledges there was a harm done to people, and the acknowledgment is itself a vital agreement along with the redress to have racial healing as a nation and move on.

People ask: "Could you just write a check to achieve reparations?" You could, but black people don't own the means of productions, and so reparations could be a stimulus that leads to greater inequality if not structured properly. But we could imagine a scenario where stocks are part of the redress — so that a certain amount of corporate ownership is reallocated to black Americans.



Idea 6: Pick up the antitrust stick and wield it


Let's go back to the Monopoly board, Marshall Steinbaum says. (Steven Senne/AP)

Marshall Steinbaum, research director and fellow at the Roosevelt Institute, a left-leaning think tank:
King is a very powerful position, but it might be enough to be assistant attorney general of the Justice Department's antitrust division.

The antitrust laws were once used to structure the economy we wanted to live in, and that was a fantastic policy success that ensured prosperity spread across the country and through all income brackets, including by eroding racial barriers to market access. We lost that in the past 40 years of antitrust jurisprudence, in which the purview of antitrust policy was narrowed significantly and corporations became very profitable, predatory and able to suck in a much larger share of economic output than they had before.

The economy in which we live now is one where lots of business models that had once been illegal are essentially immunized from antitrust liability. Among them: vertical integration (owning multiple stages of production in the supply chain, as many telecom companies do); misclassification of employees as independent contractors; the rise of the gig economy; and "alternative work arrangements" (Harvard's Lawrence F. Katz and Princeton's Alan B. Krueger found "alternative work arrangements" increased as a share of the workforce from 10.7 percent to 15.8 percent between 2005 and 2015).

As a result, corporate profits as a share of economic output have risen from less than 5 percent to more than 15 percent. They're a much larger share of national income, at the expense of both workers and traditional capital investment. If profits are high, as they are now, corporations are supposed to be expanding and investing under threat of competition. But that's not happening. They're at high profits without needing to invest, which is evidence that they don't face competition.

We need new antitrust legislation to set the policy back on track. That legislation should consist of a revision of monopolization enforcement — particularly Section 2 of the Sherman Act — since we have not seen a meaningful case brought by the government since it took action against Microsoft in the early 2000s.

Companies should face legal liability for how they exercise their market power — not just in the product markets but also through antitrust action in the labor market when they exert "monopsony" power. (See more about monopsony power here.)

The goal is to change how corporations work, to reduce their profitability and to create space for other players to compete, creating an economy that works for a wider set of stakeholders than the corporate CEOs and their shareholders. It would help reverse the decline of entrepreneurship and small-business growth and ensure the economy works for everyone.



Idea 7: Dramatically strengthen Social Security


Valerie Wilson's plan involves picking up where FDR left off. (Wikimedia Commons)

Valerie Wilson, director of the program on race, ethnicity, and the economy at the Economic Policy Institute:
We should strengthen Social Security. When Social Security started in the 1930s, it was really a family insurance program focused on improving the economic security of children, adults in their working years and retirees. In its current form, it continues to serve that purpose by providing survivor benefits for young people when an eligible parent has died; disability benefits for those who become disabled in their working years; and retirement benefits for those who exit the labor force in old age.

In this way, Social Security serves a similar purpose as wealth by providing some cushion against a loss of earnings resulting from any one of these life events. By improving Social Security, we at least help to lessen some of the consequences of the wealth gap.

The Commission to Modernize Social Security developed a plan for improving benefits that I think helps to address the wealth gap in at least three important ways. First, by increasing the Special Minimum Benefit — which goes to low earners — we can improve benefits for those who have spent their adult lives working low-wage jobs and are unlikely to have private pensions or other savings. This would include a disproportionate share of African American workers, women and those in low-paying, but more physically demanding, jobs who are unable to delay retirement until an older age.


Second, reinstating the student benefit to support students attending college or vocational school would serve to reduce the amount of debt taken on by families who don't have adequate savings or income to cover the out-of-pocket costs of attending college. Third, providing a dependent-care benefit would help those who take time out of the workforce to serve as unpaid caregivers for children or parents but currently get no credit for those years. This is a reality that is most common for women, affecting their economic security in old age.

The fact that there is a racial wealth gap means that as people of color grow as a share of the population, there will be an increasing number of people who are more likely to be vulnerable to the economic instability that can result from a loss of regular earnings. This is in addition to the accumulated costs of racial and gender wage disparities, even among those who maintain employment. We can and should change that.



Idea 8: A federal retirement savings plan, open to all


A retirement-age couple in Maine works a seasonal job at an RV park. Could America fix its wealth disparity by opening up a federal pension program? (Linda Davidson/The Washington Post)

Ernie Tedeschi, policy economist who served in President Barack Obama's Treasury Department:
The bottom quarter of families hold only 0.4 percent of America's financial assets. The top 10 percent of families hold 76.6 percent of them.

One driver of this gap is that the rich are more likely to have jobs that offer them tax-advantaged savings vehicles, such as 401(k)s. Because the tax savings from these plans rise with income, they are also more likely to benefit from them.

Near its end, the Obama administration created a new savings vehicle called myRA that attempted to bring more of these types of savings advantages to lower-income families. But enrollment fell below expectations, and the Trump administration ended the program.

A more effective solution would be to give everyone access to the retirement savings benefits that the rich enjoy. We could do that by opening the government's program for federal employees to all Americans, regardless of employer. The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), while technically not a 401(k), is designed to closely mimic the structure of such plans, with employees getting tax benefits with the opportunity to select from a menu of investment funds.

Under the TSP, an employee receives an automatic contribution equal to 1 percent of her pay, even if she doesn't contribute anything herself. Then a schedule of matching contributions kicks in. An employee contributing 5 percent of her pay gets a match of an additional 5 percent from the federal government, doubling her return instantly, regardless of tax bracket. If the TSP were open to all, the accounts would follow the employee, regardless of whether she switched jobs or even lost her job.

We could pay for TSP-for-all by curtailing the mortgage interest deduction, a tax benefit that also encourages wealth creation but whose benefit skews toward the rich. Tackling wealth inequality will mean democratizing many of the financial benefits currently enjoyed by people at the top.



Idea 9: Rein in Wall Street, crack down on white-collar crime


In one economist's utopia, this photo would show bankers instead of protesters. (Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty Images)

Stephanie Kelton, former adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and professor of public policy and economics at Stony Brook University:
Everyone talks about the need to get the rich to pay their fair share. But we should also prevent the rich from getting so obscenely rich in the first place and putting the rest of us at risk. To do that, we should crack down on white-collar crime and restore big banks to their rightful place in the American economy.

Since the early 1970s, as the economy has become more and more financialized, banks have moved away from their core purpose of serving the public interest. Loans to customers used to be made to people about whom the banks knew something — they had an interest in making good loans. Now, banks make loans they don't intend to hold beyond 30 days before they securitize and sell them off. It's purely for short-term gain.

We should mandate that banks are allowed to lend directly to borrowers only. If they make a loan, they should have to keep it on their balance sheet — there's no public purpose in allowing them to sell it off for their profit. They should not be allowed to engage in propriety trading or profit-making beyond basic lending. That would help us avoid the kinds of crises that have robbed so many people of wealth and savings during financial catastrophes.

We should also be prosecuting — and putting in jail — white-collar criminals. There are a number of studies about broad inequality in America and what the average worker gets, and how that's linked to the spectacular rise of the financial sector in particular. Putting people in jail — actually showing perp walks — will do a lot to change behavior, whether it's in big pharma or on Wall Street. Executives have to understand that breaking the law results in more than a slap on the wrist and a fine that gets wrapped into the cost of doing business. You have to prosecute.



Idea 10: A national infrastructure program funded by the 1 percent


A cleaner picks up waste on the roadside of a jammed section of the Beijing-Zhangjiakou highway in Huailai, in north China's Hebei province, Tuesday, Aug. 24, 2010. The massive traffic jam that stretches for dozens of miles and hit its 10-day mark on Tuesday stems from road construction in Beijing that won't be finished until the middle of next month, an official said. (AP Photo/Alexander F. Yuan)

Robert Frank, economist at Cornell University and author of several books on American income inequality:
Two of the biggest problems now confronting the nation are runaway growth in income inequality and crumbling infrastructure. That the best ways to address these problems are mutually reinforcing should therefore come as welcome news.

The American Society of Civil Engineers estimates that it would cost more than $4.5 trillion to bring our existing stock of infrastructure into serviceable condition by 2025. Given the incentives that engineers face, this may be an overstatement. But no one doubts that the task would be enormously expensive. Raising taxes on the nation's top earners is the only feasible way to pay for it. That step alone would reduce the skewness of the nation's post-tax income distribution.

But it would also reduce inequality by boosting the incomes of those further down the income ladder. As previous expansions of infrastructure investment — such as the Works Progress Administration during the Great Depression and the Interstate Highway System initiative of the 1950s — have taught us, many useful tasks can be done by properly supervised unskilled workers. Infrastructure projects couldn't employ all unskilled workers, but increased demand for such workers in some sectors invariably creates labor shortages and more rapid wage growth in others.

Top earners have historically resisted tax hikes, in the apparent belief that higher rates would make it harder to buy things they want. But that view is a garden variety cognitive error. Top earners, who already have everything they might reasonably be said to need, are like others in their desire to buy additional things that seem special. But "special" is a relative concept. A nice house is one that is nicer than most other houses. A high-performance car is one that performs better than most other cars, and so on. To get such things, we must outbid others who also want them. Successful bidding depends almost entirely on relative purchasing power. And because tax increases don't affect relative purchasing power, they have no effect on our ability to buy special things.

Consider the following thought-experiment: Rich car enthusiasts in World A, which has low taxes, can afford to buy $300,000 Ferraris but must drive them on roads riddled with foot-deep potholes. Their counterparts in World B, which has higher taxes, can afford only $150,000 Porsches, which they drive on roads maintained to a high standard. In which of these worlds would rich motorists be happier?



Idea 11: Reduce government footprint, repeal licensing rules and regulations


Uber, but for reducing inequality. (Daniel Sorabji/AFP/Getty Images)

Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, a right-leaning advocacy organization:
How do you reduce inequality?

First make a list of those things government does to staple people to the bottom of the economic ladder. And then stop doing them.

Occupational licensing: Today, 25 to 30 percent of jobs require some sort of government license — in the 1950s it was 5 percent. Different states require licenses to braid hair, arrange flowers, or be a barber or an interior decorator. Licensing creates a deliberate bottleneck limiting the number of Americans who can do a particular job. Uber and Lyft ignored the stupid taxi monopoly laws, and now 1 million people — who for decades were kept from such work by government laws — are working as independent contractors on ride-sharing platforms. All states should follow the lead of Gov. Doug Ducey (R) of Arizona, who signed legislation telling the occupational licensing boards: If you cannot prove that any particular licensing requirement protects health or safety (in reality), anyone in the state can challenge that regulation in court and kill the job barrier.

Mobility, mobility, mobility: A low-income person's ability to get a job starts with their ability to get to where jobs are. Let's remove restrictions on people getting around using flexible systems such as Uber, Lyft, car, van, jitney or bus instead of sinking billions of dollars into light rail or subways — inflexible concrete monuments designed by politicians decades ago to travel to yesteryear's favorite destinations. Politicians and "city planners" should be given small train sets to play with. Not the lives of millions.

Savings programs instead of traditional Social Security: The income gap is dwarfed by the wealth gap. And like income disparity, the wealth gap is often created by stupid government laws and "programs."

Higher-income people save for the future through IRAs and 401(k)s. Lower-income people are told that Social Security is saving for them. It is not.

Every American should be free to say: "I don't want to send my check to Mr. FICA: I want to write it to Mr. IRA." Other nations allow lower-income people this opportunity.



Idea 12: A tax credit for first-time home buyers


Sold signs are displayed in front of a new development in Woodcliff Lake, N.J. (Seth Wenig/AP)

Signe-Mary McKernan, co-director of the Opportunity and Ownership initiative at the Urban Institute, a think tank:
The cards are stacked against low- and middle-income families, because federal wealth building subsidies leave them out.

The federal government spends $400 billion every year to build assets through programs like the mortgage interest deduction (which offers a deduction for homeowners), and through preferential tax treatment of retirement savings. But because these subsidies go through the tax code, they primarily benefit high-income families, leaving out lower- and middle-income families, as well as young Americans, African Americans and Hispanics.

About two-thirds of federal home-ownership and retirement subsidies go to the top 20 percent of taxpayers, while the bottom 20 percent low-income taxpayers receive less than 1 percent of these subsidies.

There are two big changes we could make to start to even the playing field. One is reforming the mortgage interest tax deduction, replacing it with a "first-time home buyers" tax credit. This would provide home buyers with a refundable credit when buying a home. As proposed by Amanda Eng, Benjamin H. Harris and C. Eugene Steuerle, most purchasers would be eligible for a maximum credit equal to $12,000 for single taxpayers and $18,000 for married taxpayers. I would take the current huge subsidies benefiting wealthy people — and mostly shown to be effective only at getting people to buy bigger homes — and instead give everyone a tax credit on their first home purchase, which would be more effective at increasing equity and wealth.

A second idea is to provide access to accounts that can be used for emergency savings, with incentives for saving in them. A common misconception is that poor or even low-income people cannot save. Evidence from savings programs and research shows they can.

And even small savings amounts can help. Families with a savings cushion as little as $250 to $750 are less likely to receive public benefits, or miss a housing or utility payment after a job loss, health issue or large drop in income. They can also help save for home-ownership and retirement saving.


Tuesday, April 10, 2018

ANS -- Brad Hicks on Facebook and Fake News

Here is a Facebook post by Brad Hicks on the current fake news controversy.  A completely different take on it from what you have been hearing.
No link -- I don't know how to find stuff on FB once it's passed by.  
--Kim


Okay, with Zuckerberg testifying in front of Congress, this is as good a time as any to get something off of my chest.

IF YOU THINK THAT "FAKE NEWS" AFFECTING POLITICS IS A SOCIAL MEDIA PROBLEM, YOU ARE MISSING A LOT OF HISTORY. And some of that history is well within living memory.

When Thomas Jefferson first ran for President, he was facing a dark-money group called the Anti-Masonic League: a religious-right group, funded by his political opponents, who mass-published pamphlets "proving" that Jefferson was one of the leaders of an assassination squad that intended to murder every other head of state, and every Christian cleric in the world. He won anyway, but it's still history worth knowing.

I could cite other historical examples, but I've lived through lots of these, and let me tell you as someone who fought these rumor campaigns, I would have loved to have had Facebook back then: the "cult brainwashing" moral panic of the 1970s, the "Proctor & Gamble is Satanic" conspiracy theory rumor of the '70s through the '90s, the "D&D cult suicide" moral panic of the '80s, and the "Satanic Ritual Abuse" scare of the '80s and '90s. All of them spread hand to hand, in pamphlets and newsletters run off on mimeographs or via filched time on the copying machines at people's jobs. Are the printers to blame? the companies that didn't stop people from filching copies? the Post Office for not intercepting their mail?

You want a really entertaining trip down a really weird rabbit-hole? Google "The Testimony of John Todd Collins" some time. That particular conspiracy-theory fraud was trivially easily debunked (even Christianity Today dedicated an issue to proving it wrong), but it spread like wildfire for over a decade on the same kind of samizdat cassette tapes that Ruhollah Khomeini used to spread the Iranian Revolution. If you listen to it now, or read the more easily found transcript, John W. Todd's fraudulent "confession" sounds hilarious -- but so many people believed it that it helped Ronald Reagan win the 1980 election.

Mark Zuckerberg is taking our culture's equivalent of a flogging in the public square for not doing more to stop the spread of easily-debunked slanders and conspiracy theories, but you know what? At any time from the mid '70s through the mid '90s, when I was actively trying to stop these exact same kinds of friends-and-family-spread panics, I would have dearly loved to have been able to reply to my friends or family who fell for this kind of shit with a Snopes link. That way, not only could I have discouraged them from doing it again, I could have shown the people that they hadn't yet persuaded exactly why they shouldn't spread it further.

I don't blame Facebook, or any other social media platform, for fake news. I'm grateful that Facebook, and most of the other social media companies, have given me tools this good for fighting fake news.


Thursday, April 05, 2018

ANS -- Evolution Explains Why We Act Differently Online

This is a fairly long article, but quite interesting.  It's about interactions on social media, and ways to make it more positive and cooperative.  A worthy pursuit.  
--Kim


(Credit: Getty Images)

Evolution explains why we act differently online

New research is revealing that trolls live inside all of us – but that there are ways to defeat them and build more cooperative digital societies.

One evening in February 2018, Professor Mary Beard posted on Twitter a photograph of herself crying. The eminent University of Cambridge classicist, who has almost 200,000 Twitter followers, was distraught: after making a comment about Haiti, she had received a storm of abuse online. She later added: "I speak from the heart (and of cource [sic] I may be wrong). But the crap I get in response just isnt [sic] on; really it isn't."

In the days that followed, Beard received support from several high-profile people – even if not all of them agreed with her initial tweet. They were themselves then targeted. And when one of Beard's critics, fellow Cambridge academic Priyamvada Gopal, a woman of Asian heritage, set out her response to Beard's original tweet in an online article, she also received a torrent of abuse.

Women and members of ethnic minority groups are disproportionately the target of Twitter abuse, including death threats and threats of sexual violence. Where these identity markers intersect, the bullying can become particularly intense – as experienced by black female MP Diane Abbott, who alone received nearly half of all the abusive tweets sent to female MPs during the run-up to the 2017 UK general election. Black and Asian female MPs received on average 35% more abusive tweets than their white female colleagues even when Abbott was excluded from the total.

You might also like:
• Is social media bad for you? 
• The reasons you can't be anonymous anymore 
• What if the internet stopped for a day?

The constant abuse is silencing people, pushing them off online platforms and further reducing the diversity of online voices and opinion. And it shows no sign of abating. A survey last year found that 40% of American adults had experienced online abuse, with almost half of them receiving severe forms of harassment, including physical threats and stalking. Seventy per cent of women described online harassment as a "major problem".

MP Diane Abbott alone received almost half of all abusive tweets sent to female MPs (Credit: Credit: Alamy)

British MP Diane Abbott alone received almost half of all abusive tweets sent to female MPs before the 2017 UK general election (Credit: Alamy)

The internet offers unparalleled promise of cooperation and communication between all of humanity. But instead of embracing a massive extension of our social circles online, we seem to be reverting to tribalism and conflict.

While we generally conduct our real-life interactions with strangers politely and respectfully, online we can be horrible. Is there any way we can relearn the cooperation that enabled us to find common ground and thrive as a species?

~

"Don't overthink it, just press the button!"

I click and quickly move on to the next question. We're all playing against the clock. My teammates are far away and unknown to me, so I have no idea if we're all in it together or whether I'm being played for a fool. But I know the others are depending on me.

This is a so-called public goods game at Yale University's Human Cooperation Lab, which researchers use as a tool to help understand how and why we cooperate.

Over the years, scientists have proposed various theories about why humans cooperate enough to form strong societies. The evolutionary roots of our general niceness, most now believe, can be found in the survival advantage humans experience when we cooperate as a group.

Humans experience a survival advantage when we work together (Credit: Getty Images)

Humans experience a survival advantage when we work together (Credit: Getty Images)

In this game, I'm in a team of four people in different locations. Each of us is given the same amount of money. We are asked to choose how we will contribute to a group pot on the understanding that this pot will be doubled and split equally among us. Like all cooperation, this relies on a certain level of trust that the others in your group will be nice. If everybody in the group contributes all of their money, all the money gets doubled and redistributed four ways, so everyone doubles their money. Win–win!

"But if you think about it from the perspective of an individual," says lab director David Rand, "for each dollar that you contribute, it gets doubled to two dollars and then split four ways – which means each person only gets 50 cents back for the dollar they contributed."

In other words, even though everyone is better off collectively by contributing to a group project that no one could manage alone (in real life, this could be paying towards a hospital building, for example), there is a cost at the individual level. Financially, you make more money by being more selfish.

Rand's team has run this game with thousands of players. Half of them are asked, as I was, to decide their contribution within 10 seconds. The other half are asked to take their time and carefully consider their decision. It turns out that when people go with their gut reaction, they are much more generous.

"There is a lot of evidence that cooperation is a central feature of human evolution," says Rand. "In the small-scale societies that our ancestors were living in, all our interactions were with people that you were going to see again and interact with in the immediate future." That kept in check any temptation to act aggressively or take advantage and free-ride off other people's contributions.

So rather than work out every time whether it's in our long-term interests to be nice, it's more efficient and less effort to have the basic rule: be nice to other people. That's why our unthinking response in the experiment is a generous one.

But our learned behaviours also can change.

Usually, those in Rand's experiment who play the quickfire round are generous and receive generous dividends, reinforcing their generous outlook. But those who consider their decisions for longer are more selfish. This results in a meagre group pot, reinforcing an idea that it doesn't pay to rely on the group.

The people who had got used to cooperating in the first stage gave twice as much money in the second stage as the people who had got used to being selfish

In a further experiment, Rand gave money to people who had played one round of the game. They were asked how much they wanted to give to an anonymous stranger. This time, there was no incentive; they would be acting entirely charitably.

The people who had got used to cooperating in the first stage gave twice as much money in the second stage as the people who had got used to being selfish.

"We're affecting people's internal lives and behaviour," Rand says. "The way they behave even when no-one's watching and when there's no institution in place to punish or reward them."

In Kenya game players initially gave less generously (Credit: Getty Images)

In Kenya, which has high levels of public sector corruption, game players initially gave less generously to an anonymous stranger (Credit: Getty Images)

Rand's team also has tested how people in different countries play the game to see how the strength of social institutions – such as government, family, education and legal systems – influences behaviour. In Kenya, where public sector corruption is high, players initially gave less generously to the stranger than players in the US, which has less corruption. This suggests that people who can rely on relatively fair social institutions behave in a more public-spirited way than those whose institutions are less reliable. However, after playing just one round of the cooperation-promoting version of the public goods game, the Kenyans' generosity equalled that of their US counterparts. And it cut both ways: Americans trained to be selfish gave a lot less.

So there may be something about online social media culture that can encourage mean behaviour. Unlike hunter-gatherer societies, which rely on cooperation to survive and have rules for sharing food, for example, social media has weak institutions. It offers physical distance, relative anonymity and little reputational or punitive risk for bad behaviour. If you're mean, no-one you know is going to see.

Each moral or emotional word in a tweet increases the likelihood of it being retweeted by 20%

On the flip side, you can choose to broadcast an opinion that benefits your standing with your social group. At Yale's Crockett Lab, for instance, researchers study how social emotions are transformed online – in particular moral outrage. Brain-imaging studies show that when people act on their moral outrage (in the offline world, confronting someone who allows their dog to foul a playground, for instance), their brain's reward centre is activated: they feel good about it. This reinforces their behaviour so they are more likely to intervene in a similar way again. And while challenging a violator of your community's social norms has risks – you may get attacked – it also boosts your reputation.

Those of us fortunate enough to have relatively peaceful lives are rarely faced with truly outrageous behaviour. As a result, we rarely see moral outrage expressed. But open up Twitter or Facebook and you get a very different picture. Recent research shows that messages with both moral and emotional words are more likely to spread on social media – each moral or emotional word in a tweet increases the likelihood of it being retweeted by 20%.

Messages with moral and emotional words are more likely to spread on social media

Messages with moral and emotional words are more likely to spread on social media (Credit: Getty Images)

"Content that triggers outrage and that expresses outrage is much more likely to be shared," says lab director Molly Crockett. What we've created online is "an ecosystem that selects for the most outrageous content, paired with a platform where it's easier than ever before to express outrage".

Unlike in the offline world, there is little or no personal risk in confronting and exposing someone. And it feeds itself. "If you punish somebody for violating a norm, that makes you seem more trustworthy to others, so you can broadcast your moral character by expressing outrage and punishing social norm violations," Crockett says.

"When you go from offline – where you might boost your reputation for whoever happens to be standing around at the moment – to online, where you broadcast it to your entire social network, then that dramatically amplifies the personal rewards of expressing outrage."

This is compounded by the positive feedback such as 'likes'. As a result, the platforms help people form habits of expressing outrage into a habit. "And a habit is something that's done without regard to its consequences," Crockett points out.

Moral outrage also has led to social change

Online moral outrage also has led to social change, as when Florida teenagers used social media to mobilise protests in February and March 2018 (Credit: Alamy)

On the upside, online moral outrage has allowed marginalised, less-empowered groups to promote causes that traditionally have been harder to advance. It played an important role in focusing attention on the sexual abuse of women by high-status men. And in February 2018, Florida teens railing on social media against another school shooting helped to shift public opinion.

"I think that there must be ways to maintain the benefits of the online world," says Crockett, "while thinking more carefully about redesigning these interactions to do away with some of the more costly bits."

~

The good news is that it may only take a few people to alter the culture of a whole network.

At Yale's Human Nature Lab, Nicholas Christakis and his team explore ways to identify these individuals and enlist them in public health programmes that could benefit the community. In Honduras, they are using this approach to influence vaccination enrolment and maternal care, for example. Online, such people have the potential to turn a bullying culture into a supportive one.

Key individuals can turn around a bullying culture (Credit: Creative Commons)

Key individuals in an online network can turn a bullying culture into a supportive one (Credit: WOCinTech/Creative Commons)

Corporations already use a crude system of identifying so-called Instagram influencers to advertise their brands. But Christakis is looking not just at how popular an individual is, but how they fit into a given network. In a small isolated village, for example, everyone is closely connected and you're likely to know everyone at a party. In a city, by contrast, people may be living more close by as a whole, but you are less likely to know everyone at a party there. How thoroughly interconnected a network is affects how behaviours and information spread around it.

To explore this, Christakis has designed software that creates temporary artificial societies online. "We drop people in and then we let them interact with each other and see how they play a public goods game, for example, to assess how kind they are to other people."

Then he manipulates the network. "By engineering their interactions one way, I can make them really sweet to each other, work well together, and they are healthy and happy and they cooperate. Or you take the same people and connect them a different way and they're mean jerks to each other."

A small isolated village (Credit: Getty Images)

A network like a small, isolated village functions much differently than a less interconnected group – and that is reflected in online communities, too (Credit: Getty Images)

In one experiment, he randomly assigned strangers to play the public goods game with each other. In the beginning, he says, about two-thirds of people were cooperative. "But some of the people they interact with will take advantage of them and, because their only option is either to be kind and cooperative or to be a defector, they choose to defect because they're stuck with these people taking advantage of them. And by the end of the experiment everyone is a jerk to everyone else."

Christakis turned this around simply by giving each person a little bit of control over who they were connected to after each round. They had to decide whether to be kind to their neighbours and whether to stick with them, or not. The only thing each one knew was whether another player had cooperated or defected in the round before. "What we were able to show is that people cut ties to defectors and form ties to cooperators, and the network rewired itself." In other words, a cooperative prosocial structure instead of an uncooperative structure.

Christakis's team has started adding bots to their temporary societies to help the humans help themselves

In an attempt to generate more cooperative online communities, Christakis's team has started adding bots to their temporary societies. His team is not interested in inventing super-smart AI to replace human cognition, but in infiltrating a population of smart humans with 'dumb-bots' to help the humans help themselves.

In fact, Christakis found that if the bots played perfectly, that didn't help the humans. But if the bots made some mistakes, they unlocked the potential of the group to find a solution. In other words, adding a little noise into the system, the bots helped the network to function more efficiently.

A version of this model could involve infiltrating the newsfeeds of partisan people with occasional items offering a different perspective, helping to shift people out of their social media comfort-bubbles and allow society as a whole to cooperate more.

Women are disproportionately the target of abuse (Credit: WOCinTech/Creative Commons)

Evidence has overwhelmingly shown that women and members of ethnic minority groups are disproportionately the target of Twitter abuse (Credit: WOCinTech/Creative Commons)

Bots may offer a solution to another online problem: much antisocial behaviour online stems from the anonymity of internet interactions.

One experiment found that the level of racist abuse tweeted at black users could be dramatically slashed by using bot accounts with white profile images to respond to racist tweeters. A typical bot response to a racist tweet would be: "Hey man, just remember that there are real people who are hurt when you harass them with that kind of language." Simply cultivating a little empathy in such tweeters reduced their racist tweets almost to zero for weeks afterwards.

One experiment found that the level of racist abuse tweeted at black users could be dramatically slashed by using bot accounts

Another way of addressing the low reputational cost for bad behaviour online is to engineer a form of social punishment. The game company League of Legends introduced a "Tribunal" feature, in which negative play is punished by other players. The company reported that 280,000 players were "reformed" after such punishment in one year, achieving a positive standing in the community. Developers could also build in social rewards for good behaviour, encouraging more cooperative elements that help build relationships.

One company has a feature in which players punish negative play (Credit: Getty Images)

To help reform bad behaviour online, one gaming company has introduced a feature in which other players punish negative play (Credit: Getty Images)

Researchers already are learning how to predict when an exchange is about to turn bad – the moment at which it could benefit from pre-emptive intervention. "You might think that there is a minority of sociopaths online, which we call trolls, who are doing all this harm," says Cristian Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil at Cornell University's Department of Information Science. "What we actually find in our work is that ordinary people, just like you and me, can engage in such antisocial behaviour. For a specific period of time, you can actually become a troll. And that's surprising."

Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil has been investigating the comments sections below online articles. He identifies two main triggers for trolling: the context of the exchange (how other users are behaving) and your mood. "If you're having a bad day, or if it happens to be Monday, for example, you're much more likely to troll in the same situation," he says. "You're nicer on a Saturday morning."

After collecting data, including from people who had trolled others in the past, Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil built an algorithm that predicts with 80% accuracy when someone is about to become abusive online. This provides an opportunity to, for example, introduce a delay in how fast they can post their response. If people have to think twice before they write something, that improves the context of the exchange for everyone: you're less likely to witness people misbehaving, and so less likely to misbehave yourself.

One algorithm predicts when someone is about to become abusive (Credit: Getty Images)

One algorithm predicts with 80% accuracy when someone is about to become abusive online, which could help with interventions (Credit: Getty Images)

But in spite of the horrible behaviour many of us have experienced online, the majority of interactions are cooperative and justified moral outrage is usefully employed in challenging hateful tweets. A recent British study looking at anti-Semitism on Twitter found that posts challenging anti-Semitic tweets are shared far more widely than the anti-Semitic tweets themselves. Most hateful posts were ignored or only shared within a small echo chamber of similar accounts. Perhaps we're already starting to do the work of the bots ourselves.

It's worth remembering that we've had thousands of years to hone our person-to-person interactions, but only 20 years of social media. "Offline, we have all these cues from facial expressions to body language to pitch," Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil says. "Online we discuss things only through text. I think we shouldn't be surprised that we're having so much difficulty in finding the right way to discuss and cooperate online."

As our online behaviour develops, we may well introduce subtle signals, digital equivalents of facial cues, to help smooth online discussions. In the meantime, the advice for dealing with online abuse is to stay calm. Don't retaliate. Block and ignore bullies, or if you feel up to it, tell them to stop. Talk to family or friends about what's happening and ask them to help you. Take screenshots and report online harassment to the social media service where it's happening, and if it includes physical threats, report it to the police.

If social media as we know it is going to survive, the companies running these platforms are going to have to keep steering their algorithms, perhaps informed by behavioural science, to encourage cooperation and kindness rather than division and abuse. As users, we too may well learn to adapt to this new communication environment so that civil and productive interaction remains the norm online as it is offline.

"I'm optimistic," Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil says. "This is just a different game and we have to evolve."

This article was first published on Mosaic by Wellcome and is republished here under a Creative Commons licence. Full disclosure: Wellcome, the publisher of Mosaic, has shares in Facebook, Alphabet and other social media companies as part of its investment portfolio.