Sunday, August 16, 2020

ANS - The 5 States that Will Decide the Election And the one Nightmare Scenario.

Here is a short article, with graphics, on where we are at this point in the election.  It's up for grabs.  anything could happen.  
Make sure any of your friends in Florida know that Trump intends to end Social Security.  
--Kim



The 5 States that Will Decide the Election

And the one Nightmare Scenario.

Dave Fymbo
Aug 12 · 3 min read



The fivethirtyeight 2020 Election Forecast is up and there's a lot to be gleaned.

If you give all the states to the candidate favored to win each state, even the ones favored 51–49, here's what the race looks like at the moment:

Image for post

As of this moment, Biden has a 53–46 lead in the popular vote, as forecasted by fivethirtyeight. Everyone expects the race to tighten.

If it doesn't tighten, then none of this matters. Then the only thing will matter is Trump's plan to claim victory regardless of actual votes. So for now, we're going to focus on the assumption that the race will tighten.

Which means I'm counting those red states above as locked in for Trump. 219 is his low point for this exercise.

So if the race tightens, which states are vulnerable for Biden? And which ones have high enough Electoral Votes to put Trump over the top?

These five:

Florida (29 electoral votes)

Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes)

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)

Arizona (11 electoral votes)

Minnesota (10 electoral votes)

These five combine for 80 electoral votes.

If you take those away from Safe Biden territory, here's what the battleground state map looks like:

Image for post

Let's just start with the elephant in the room. Florida. It swung the 2000 election and is in play to be a major factor in 2020.

If Biden gets Florida, that puts him at 268 and would only need one of the other 4 battleground states.

This makes Florida a must-win for Trump. If Trump gets Florida, this opens up a lot more paths. (This makes Trump's recent decision to put Social Security in jeopardy a lot more suspect.)

For future reference, here are the current fivethirtyeight forecasts for each of these battleground states.

Arizona (Biden 55% chance to win)

Florida (Biden 64% chance to win)

Wisconsin (Biden 70% chance to win)

Minnesota (Biden 72% chance to win)

Pennsylvania (Biden 73% chance to win)

I'll be very interested in seeing how these shift over the next few months.

The Nightmare Scenario

If Trump does win Florida, the next two most likely states he could win would be Arizona and Wisconsin. If he does that without winning NE-2 and loses Pennsylvania and Minnesota, here's the map we get:

Image for post

Yep. 269–269 tie.

What happens then? Each state's Congressional House delegation would have one vote and Republicans control 26 of the 50 houses.

That's all it would take.

If Trump holds on to the states he's leading in now and can win Florida, Wisconsin and Arizona, he'd get re-elected.

Forget all the national polls and pundit predictions of what's safe. This election is completely up for grabs. And we already know how Trump feels about grabbing things. When you're a star they let you do it.

40 Fathoms

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