Three Transformations, or Why Our Civilization's Beginning to Shatter
Our Civilization Is Undergoing a Series of Shocks — And None of Them Are Good
There's a funny thing I've noticed. One of the things I do wearing my economist hat is to…pore over reports. And these days, even mighty CEOs are beginning to feel the pain. Even they seem to be in a little bit of shock. Funnily, almost every report they sign off on now uses the same five words over and over again, in lament and panic, trying to explain everything from falling profits to growing layoffs. This isn't about them, though — it's about us, our world, civilization, and the future. To me?
Those five words are a lens into the world we're living in now: three transformations our civilization's undergoing, and none of them are good.
By the way, come on over and join us at my publication, the Issue, if you haven't already. We've already discussed this and more this week. There's tons to read there, so have a browse, peruse, join the conversation. I'd be delighted to see you there.
Ready for the five words? "Macroeconomic risks and geopolitical tensions." Now. Don't let that bore you — like I said, CEOs and investors and so forth are beginning to say these five words over and over again, in a mantra of mounting panic. But what do they mean for the rest of us? And if even they're getting things wrong now, what does it mean for the future, too?
We now live in a world where the economy is now shattering. It's going through a profound transformation, made of a series of "shocks," meaning sudden and dramatic discontinuities, ruptures. We used to have stagnant economies, and that wasn't good. Now, though, we have extractive stagflationary economics, and those are far worse.
What do I mean by those two words? You already know, in a sense, because you're living the pain every time you go grocery shopping or buy new stuff. Prices have skyrocketed, dramatically, and while "inflation has fallen," sure, that's a little like saying your disease is progressing a little less rapidly. Prices are still sky-high, and perpetually creeping upwards.
But that's hardly all. This upwards climb of prices leaves living standards cratering at the median — for the average person. Yet that's not shared. As in, it'd be one thing if everyone were growing worse off, but that's not the case. The rich are going from super rich to ultra rich — we could see the first trillionaires by decade's end. And when we see that inequality growing while the average person's growing worse off — the majority of people in the world are now getting poorer — then we know a game of extraction is afoot. As in, wealth is being siphoned by some, from others, and in this case, it's a wealth transfer upwards, one of the largest in history, if not the.
Hence, the second transformation that's afoot. The working and middle classes are in the process of deserting liberalism, and even democracy altogether. I often discuss what's one of the most dire statistics in modern history, and should be much more widely known: democracy's more than halved, from over 40% of the world, to under 20%, in two decades. That's a profound, shattering political transformation–a true rupture.
Why is this happening? There are many reasons, but one of the chief ones is that people feel cheated, abandoned, neglected, and betrayed. Their living standards really are falling, and sadly, the center left refuses to acknowledge it, and thus can't really connect with them. Hence, voters have deserted what used to be stable coalitions between liberals and left, even in places like mature European social democracies.
And instead, they're defecting to the lunacy of the far right. The far right offers them the wrong solution. It points the finger at scapegoats, by and large innocent ones, for the woes of the average person. The working and middle class, in despair, believes them — because at least it acknowledges there is a problem. The center left, meanwhile, not acknowledging much of a problem at all, is met with suspicion, hostility, and distrust.
Now think of the modern era. How much of a rupture is it that working and middle classes — and in America's case, former ones — have turned to the far right? They used to be the bedrock of modern democratic politics. If not liberal in the sort of Ivy League sense, then at least leaning towards higher levels of investment, greater redistribution, a more expansive social contract. But now the situation's gotten so bad that the far right's making inroads and converting not just the former working and middle classes — but even young people (which is how it's winning in Europe.)
Think for a moment how little orthodox politics has to offer when even young people are turning to the far right. Of course, that's underscored, in many cases, by failures like Biden's on Gaza, or debt, or what have you.
So: two transformations. Our economies are now shrinking in real terms, for the average person, precisely because having turned extractive, the wealthy are growing richer at their expense. "Tech" like AI will only make that situation worse. Climate change, of course, will ravage our economies, and that process has already begun — it's already responsible for probably 30–50% of recent inflation, and will cause much, much more as the planet heats up.
Two: our polities are now broken. We often say "politics" is broken, but I wonder if we recognize how so. It's not just that it's sclerotic or bureaucratic, but rather, that the fundaments of politics in the modern era are now shattered. The center left can no longer rely on middle and working classes reliably, because they are turning to the far right. That's becoming true for young people, too, and if that trend continues, then of course democracy as we know it is truly finished. Orthodox liberal slash conservative politics now appeal to a shrinking number of people, and that fissure is only growing by the day, leaving demagoguery and fanaticism on the swift, sudden rise.
That brings me to the third transformation. What really underlies all this? A sense of despair. I often say that a shockwave of anguish is pulsing through the world. When we look at the statistics, they're dire. In America, young people are "completely overwhelmed," "numb, and "can't function" — the majority. China's got a "lying flat generation." Negative sentiments like depression, loneliness, anger, and rage have skyrocketed. Pessimism is at all time highs.
We should take all this incredibly seriously. Because of course people who are destabilized don't use their rational minds very well. And yet you'll hardly see this end of the story discussed anywhere. For media, it doesn't sell ads and generate clicks. For politicians, it's a no-go zone. But the fact is that when people are in this much anguish, and they don't feel anyone takes them seriously, of course, that's precisely not just when, but also why, they turn to conspiracy theories, lunacy, scapegoating, spite, and revert to us-vs-them fight-or-flight forms of trauma response.
This is the story of our world at this juncture in history. We're a civilization losing our hold on democracy, whose economy is sputtering, and which is pulsing with despair and hopelessness. The future is a shockwave, for most of us — right down to even those CEOs numbly reciting their five word mantra, and wondering why it's all starting to go so wrong. So let me ask you again: are we on the brink?
Come on over and join us at the Issue. I've been working hard to set it up, and there's essay after essay there for you to take in, reflect on, discuss. Thanks for reading, and I'll see you there.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment