Oct 3
How Much Trouble Are Our Democracies In?
Democracy's Foundations Are Crumbling — And Now its Roof Is Caving in, Too
By now, everyone should be — probably is — aware of the fact that democracy's in deep trouble around the globe. When I say deep, I mean deep. How bad is it? I want to spend a few minutes discussing it, and give you a way to think clearly about what political scientists have called an age of "democratic backsliding" or "democratic decline" — but which you and I might simply say more plainly is looking ominously like an age of fascism resurgent.
The first wave of democratic implosions hit relatively undeveloped democracies. That means poor countries, like India, or poor-to-middle income countries, like the Philippines and Brazil. And it also means the least developed democracies among rich countries — like America and Britain. This much was predictable, at least in the sense that the least developed democracies are likely to be, also, the most vulnerable to collapse.
So a kind of tsunami of anti-democratic rage swept around the globe. In America, of course, Trumpism was allowed to metastasize, an inept and complicit intellectual and pundit class busily asking the rhetorical question "but is this fascism?" while kids were being taken from their parents, and put in concentration camps. This sort of self-serving inattention of course paved the way for what was clearly to come: the series of coup attempts that led up to Jan 6th. Because America's power centers were busy downplaying how serious a threat Trumpism really was to democracy, Trumpism was allowed to plan, plot, and then carry out a series of coup attempts — from soft attempts to produce fake slates of electors, to the bloody violence at the Capitol.
Trumpism became a model and beacon for anti-democratic movements around the globe — even many of which preceded it. In India, Modi-ism had existed before Trumpism — a kind of hyper-religious fanatical nationalism — and yet movements such as that looked at Trumpism, and smiled: "if they can do it, why can't we do even more?" The same was true of anti-democratic movements in Eastern Europe, which both took cues from Trumpism, and inspired back in turn.
Yet the point in this category of democratic decline is that was bottom-up. Let me clarify what I mean by that. I don't mean it just in the sense of "within societies" — ie, a grass roots movement. We'll come back to that point. Rather, I mean it the sense that if we looked at league tables of nations, it was usually the nations faring worst among their peers that democracy began to decline in. For example, America had long been the worst performer amongst rich countries, on nearly every social indicator imaginable — from maternal mortality to happiness to trust to indebtedness. America was, as people openly remark now, barely a developed country at all. And in that sense, democracy began to erode and collapse from the bottom up.
And for a time, many thought that was where things would stop. More developed nations were surely immune to democratic decline — like, for example, Europe's social democracies. The idea was that such nations would be largely immune to democratic decline, having built robust social contracts, which could withstand the populist pressures that had afflicted nations like America — lesser nations, in a way, less protected in every way from the ills of rage, despair, and discontent, with fewer guarantees, protections, less empathic norms, fewer safeguards against democracy imploding, both institutionally and procedurally.
After all, many of Europe's post-war constitutions had been rewritten explicitly with the idea of ever preventing fascism from recurring.
Alas, this optimistic view of history is turning out not to be the case. Take a hard look at what's happening now — in what we might call the Third Wave of Democratic Decline.
The first wave was the birth of populist movements like Trumpism and Brexit, and the second was their ascendance to power, through complicity and appeasement and "it can't happen here"-ism. And, like I said, the idea was that that was where democratic decline would largely stop — in places already troubled, like America and Britain, or India and Brazil.
But now? The situation's very different. Nations like Italy and Sweden, too, are going full-blown fascist. Italy's new leadership and Sweden's second biggest party now have explicit fascist "roots." And if you think you can reform a fascist organization, my friend, have I got news for you, beginning with the Nazis. That's a joke, but not really one at all.
What does it mean when nations like Italy and Sweden, too, experience democratic implosions? After all, these are mature social democracies.
Think of democracy as a spectrum. At the bottom are countries like India and Brazil, and a small ways up, ones like America. Places where democracy has never really matured in the strict terms of genuine equality, justice, freedom, and so forth. As a simple example, in America, women have never had equal rights formally, and basics like healthcare and income are still a struggle for nearly everyone. Democracy, perhaps — but not in the modern, mature sense.
At the other end of the spectrum lies the pinnacle of democracy — mature social democracies, largely concentrated in Western Europe. These are the most sophisticated societies in human history — designed with generous social contracts, which guarantee basics, at a level unprecedented in the brutal history of feudalism and hyper capitalism and so forth, to all.
It's one thing when democracy begins to implode at the lower, less developed level — where nations like America find themselves. It's quite another when democracy begins to implode from the pinnacle itself. And that is what nations like Sweden and Italy experiencing profound, catastrophic levels of democratic collapse tell us — that democracy isn't just imploding from the weak foundations anymore, but also now from the capstones.
In other words, in this Third Wave of Democratic Decline, democracy's buckling from the top down, not just the bottom up. From the very heights of what democracy is and is capable of — at the level of mature social democracies.
Let me put that a little bit more formally now. In the First and Second Waves of Democratic Decline, it was liberal democracies — or aspiring liberal democracies, even — which found themselves under threat from populist movements, that quickly became neo-fascist and authoritarian movements.
Think of America again: it never came close to becoming a social democracy, guaranteeing much of anything, from healthcare to housing to income, for all. It remained, steadfastly, a liberal democracy — a neoliberal one, to be precise. In this context, a "liberal democracy" means one that prioritizes the old idea of freedom — freedom from any kind of government interference — over the newer one, which is freedom through collective action and shared investment, like freedom to get educated, to have healthcare, and so forth. America's idea of freedom was individualistic and economistic and consumerist: I get mine, you do yours, and your life is your problem, and every interaction between us is mediated by markets, not communities. That's liberal democracy in a nutshell.
Social democracy is at an entirely different level of sophistication. It does guarantee basics for all — often generous and cutting edge ones. It does prioritize values like dignity and equality over the naive version of liberal democracy's individualistic, thin freedom. And to do all that, social democracies usually have more modern political systems, too, whether through proportional representation or ranked choice voting and other modern innovations.
So to see democracy now collapsing from the top down, not just the bottom up, is a very grim development. We're now seeing several forms of democratic collapse at work in the world, not just one. Liberal democracies like America and Britain continue their plummet into dysfunction and chaos — even if Dark Brandon in America is doing a good job of righting the ship, the Trumpists are still right there, openly threatening violence and cheering on the next coup, while Britain's become a worldwide laughingstock compared to Argentina or Venezuela. That's form one. But there's another kind, which is different — nations like Sweden and Italy, mature social democracies, buckling and breaking, too.
Think of a house. It's one thing when the foundations begin to weaken. It's another when the roofs falls in. Two distinct forms of collapse — each, perhaps, making the other worse. And that is what's happening to our house of democracy. The foundation's crumbling — but the roof's also beginning to crumple. That's not a good place for a civilization to be.
Where do we go from here? The world's bright spot in these depths of democratic decline is, ironically enough, America — it's Big Bang in the first place. Under Joe Biden, serious efforts are being made to stem the tide. They range from punishing the offenders — see how the pressure's intensifying on Trump himself — to undoing the root causes of democracy's woes, underinvestment, inequality, and the ensuing despair, which causes a widespread loss of faith institutions, and trust between social groups, paving the way for scapegoating and demagoguery. It was America which set the trend for democratic decline — and Biden's America may be showing the world how to undo it, too. Time will tell. The initial signs are positive.
Democracy is collapsing globally now, from the bottom up and the top down, both — from the foundation and the capstone. The question before us now is: can democracy be rebuilt? Or was it just to be a passing, fleeting phase in history — as humanity lurches from empire and war to extinction?
Umair
October 2022
To answer your question, rather ask why democracies are in trouble.Worldwide, democracy is becoming the terminal patient with an assortment of cancers eating at the very foundations of a system that has served the free world so well. To simply try to identify the symptoms without looking for the causes is surely an exercise in futility.If democracy was still offering the general populace the same sense of contentment as before, there would be no fertile soil for fascism to plant its invasive roots.Clearly, this is a big subject that can't be fully covered in such a small space but let me throw a few ideas at you.The flood of refugees that are streaming into many countries such as Italy, France, and the United States (as examples but by no means only), are bringing with them their poverty and new cultural challenges.Besides costing the home countries fortunes, they are in many instances still retaining their cultures causing a great strain on local facilities. To add insult to injury, France has also had a series of fatal bombings by militants.Countries are faced with new expenses to accommodate the refugees, new legal processes, and Sharia law, to deal with refugee crimes. Crime coincidentally has increased alarmingly, a particular issue in Sweden where little crime existed before.I could go on but I'm sure you get the picture.People simply want a return to the days when it was safe to walk the streets at night. They have become bitter against foreigners who instead of saying thanks for the help, are rather turning their streets into warzones.Governments are not dealing with these new issues in a satisfactory way thus opening up the space for the nationalist/fascist parties to claim the high ground. Italy for Italians. France for the French. Let's make America great again...Is it any surprise that these cries are falling on willing ears?If you want to stop fascism in its tracks, then solve the refugee problems. It's not an easy issue I grant you, particularly when a country such as America, perhaps more than any other, has destabilized so many countries around the world.However, what is done is done. If poor unstable countries were enabled to become successful, then the flow of refugees would slow and eventually you may even see people going back home.Like any disease, fascism can only flourish while it is being fed. Cut off its oxygen and where does it go?
13
Wait until the real influx of ClimateRefugees. Total chaos that can't be Stopped.
3
We're trying, at least for this election. Jan. 6 Committee is working hard at this.
2
...refugees are not the ones perpetrating violence where I live. Much of it is street gangs which have been around for years who were pushed out of the inner city neighbourhoods to the burbs due to gentrification and upscale development that cause hosing and rental prices to skyrocket.Another source is white violence against non white immigrants. who are citizens where small grocery stores are attacked and ransacked with the owners being threatened. Add to this the anti alien sentiment that arose during the pandemic, again of ten perpetuated by whites.There has been a marked increase in firearm incidents as well some by gangs but also white citizens as well. During the pandemic one business that was booming was firearm sales. Now we are seeing the fallout of that here.The major issue in the city currently is homelessness which has worsened since both the previous recession and the pandemic. Part is due to the ridiculously high cost of housing that exceeds the wages of most workers. Even though the minimum wage in the metro area has finally reached 15$, rent for even a small one bedroom takes upwards of 65% of one's gross monthly income. The homeless issue here has its roots in the closures of mental health facilities that began in the 1980s and has only grown worse since.Immigrants and refugees are far down the list as the root of crime and poverty issues here, even though Portland is a Sanctuary City.Immigrants and refugees are far down the list as the root of crime and poverty issues here, even though Portland is a Sanctuary City.
1
Thanks for your comments.I'm simplifying the issue which I would say is in the main where the white, 'we're better than them' mindset prevails. Refugees are after all mainly invading white spaces. What happens in African countries with refugee problems is old news.Crime is on the increase everywhere but where you've had an influx of people who struggle to lay down roots and get employment, it makes sense that they will be most effected.While all that you say is likely true, the locals will scapegoat their problems onto people with differences.The appeal of nationalistic movements is that they encourage keeping the scapegoated communities out. Makes perfect sense as before they came the problems seemed less. The fact that they were getting abused in their home countries often in the name of colonialism's evils escapes the bigots.
1
Insightful as always, your social analysis is "spot on". You define the state of play and the issues very clearly. What's next though?By this I mean, what's next in terms of the global response to the Climate Crisis?Your last article made it clear that we have reached the "do or die" moment for responding to that Crisis. Guterres said the same thing in his speech. Some of us here on Medium (the Climate Realists) also completely agree with you.So, how should the average person respond to that?Are you trying to mobilize people to get to the polls this year and vote in a wave of "Green Hawks"? New leaders who are willing to put everything else aside and focus only on the Climate Crisis. Because that's what's needed.Or, are you simply reporting on the "state of play" and letting your readers decide for themselves how they feel. Because here's an uncomfortable truth.A LOT of WHITE VOTERS WANT FASCISM.There is a subtext in this swing to Fascism. It plays on WHITE fears of racial annihilation. On the idea that hordes of Black and Brown people are going to swarm over them and obliterate them.A LOT of WHITE voters don't want to try and save the World. They think that leadership should be focused on saving THEM, FIRST.Do their votes, do their desires not count?You and I can argue that this is exactly the worst possible response to the Crisis. That pulling out of Global Institutions and frameworks into strictly Nationalist "every country for itself" positions will accelerate and intensify the Crisis. Will hasten COLLAPSE.You and I can argue that COLLAPSE will spare no one. That no countries/nations will survive on their own. That our response must be GLOBAL and coordinated. Or else the COLLAPSE will be total.Right now, the FASCISTS are more convincing. Right now WHITE voters are responding to their message.DO YOU SEE ANY WAY OUT OF THAT TRAP?
14
The cure for the despair that causes a turn to fascism is to get rid of poverty. In the US, the Dems need to do a lot more "I feel your pain" speeches, and then do something about it.But that's politics. The other factor is that dictatorship is the more primitve, less mature form. We need a more educated, more mature populous. Fear and anxiety makes people regress and act like children -- and despite the denials from the right, they want big daddy Trump to save them. He tells them only he can do it, but it's all talk. The Dems don't do enough of this kind of talk, letting people know that their poverty and stress is seen, but we also need to do something about it. but we can't do anything about it until we get enough power to do something.Besides "I feel your pain" we need to clearly express the ideas and ideals of our side, in emotional language, as well as rational language, because liberals hear both, where the other side just hears the emotional part. We need to reiterate, and know, the difference: that liberals think we are obligated to treat everyone morally, while the ultraconservatives feel they only need to treat their in-group morally, and everyone else is just resources to revile at will.
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