From: Joyce Segal <joyceck10@gmail.com>
Date: Fri, Jun 3, 2022 at 9:20 AM
Subject: EVs
To: Kim Cooper <>, Sandra C
Call it what you'd like: an inflection point, a milestone, a crossroads, a defining moment.
Either way, the point is that we're living through a period of significant change in the auto industry, as electric vehicle demand outstrips supply, sales of internal combustion vehicles potentially peak, and traditional automakers and governments alike commit tens of billions of dollars toward electrifying the car.
- In 2021, EV sales accounted for nearly 10% of all new passenger-vehicle sales worldwide. That figure could more than double to 23% by 2025, according to the latest installment of energy research firm BloombergNEF's annual EV Outlook report.
- EVs represent a $9 trillion market opportunity between now and 2030, per BNEF.
But, key questions remain. Namely, is the current momentum enough to reach 2050 net-zero goals for transportation?
The short answer, per BNEF's new report, is no. Not without major adjustments. While some segments of transportation are close to being on track for net-zero goals—i.e., 100% zero-emission vehicle share by 2050—others are further away.
- On our current path, BNEF also anticipates that the existing EV adoption gap between "wealthier countries and emerging economies" will widen further.
- Leading markets are projected to surpass 60% market share of EVs by 2040, while EVs will make up less than 20% of all vehicles in emerging markets by then.
Addition by subtraction: While EVs are a necessary tool for reducing transportation emissions, they're not the only tool. Reducing vehicle dependency by investing in public transportation, walking, and biking can have a significant effect on lowering emissions, per BNEF—and make net-zero goals more attainable.
- "Governments should prioritize investments in these areas, many of which also have concurrent health benefits," the authors wrote. "An 'all of the above' approach is needed to stay on track for net zero."
Big picture: Although substantial progress has been made on EV adoption in wealthier countries, continuing on the current path would mean the vehicle-transportation sector still emits 3.5 gigatonnes of CO2 per year in 2050, BNEF estimates. For context, the entire transportation sector—including aviation and shipping—emitted 7.2 gigatonnes in 2020, per the IEA.
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