Friday, September 03, 2021

ANS -- "are more right -leaning people dying of COVID?"

Here's a Facebook post, with comments (and sources) on the question "are more right -leaning people dying of COVID?"
--Kim


TLDR: For every current 4 adult covid deaths in America, 2 are GOP or GOP-leaning; 1 is an independent; and 1 is a Democrat or Democratic-leaning.
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So there's a meme running around where Neil deGrasse Tyson says that five times as many republicans are dying of covid as democrats.
He did tweet that, but then he deleted it. When challenged, he kind of hand-waved over the numbers.
So.....
There are ~331 million Americans. ~258 million of them are adults. (US Census)
Of those, 30% identify as Democrats, 19% as Democratic-leaning, 25% as Republican, 15% as Republican-leaning, leaving 11% unaffiliated. (Gallup reported by NY Magazine)
88% of Democrats report being vaxxed, as do 55% of Republicans and 60% of "Independents" (which I reclassify as "unaffiliated". (NBCNews poll)
If we assume that XX-leaning individuals are vaxxed at the average rate of the political party they lean to and the unaffiliated, that means 74% of Democratic-leaning adults are vaxxed as are 58% of Republican-leaning adults.
Multiplying everything out we find that ~128 million American adults are unvaxxed or as I like to think of them, covid-available.
7% of the covid-available adults are Democrats, 16% are Democratic-leaning, 24% are unaffiliated, 26% are Republican-leaning, and 27% are Republicans.
Add up the XXs and the leaning their way and 23% of the covid-available adults are Democrats or leaning; 24% are unaffiliated, and 53% are Republicans or leaning.
So roughly speaking out of every four covid deaths (assuming that the chance of covid death is homogenous among the covid-available), 2 are Republicans or leaning, 1 is unaffiliated, and 1 is Democrat or leaning.
If you JUST compare Democrats to Republicans in the covid-available, the ratio is about 4 Republicans per Democrat, but that ignores the leaning and unaffiliated, so NDT is still a little extreme according to my sources (which are listed in the comments).
EDIT -- added "current" to TLDR making it clear, I hope, that this ratio is presently valid but will change over time.
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