Gradually, and Then All at Once
Climate change is not coming, it's here
If you're not scared, you should be. Have you heard of the concept of climate islands, safe places to live in during the next ten years? You haven't, because I just made it up. But we are starting to see places get ranked on the basis of whether they are less susceptible to the effects of warming. I live in one (Western NY).
There is a checklist. Fresh water in abundance? Check. Tornados, forest fires, hurricanes, droughts…nope. Above sea level. Yes, 400' or higher. Hot? Not particularly.
Think about these criteria. Today, in Texas, people are being asked to curtail cooking to reduce the strain on their utility systems. In the southwest temps are near 120. The southeast and Texas (again) are facing tropical weather that will drop 10+" of rain on an already sodden region. Forest fires will ravage the West coast again.
Meanwhile, Republican politicians and evangelicals deny reality and pray. I actually do not think most Republicans pray but that is my opinion. Nevertheless, we are screwed and we are not dealing with it.
This is not my problem
I'm in my sixties. I've watched this insane scenario unfold gradually. I knew, in the eighties, that the oil companies had developed something called scenario planning as far back as the nineteen fifties to do long term strategy. They knew back then that carbon was destroying the atmosphere. Their planning was focused on how to make the most money before that occurred.
This information was confidential.
The bet was that denial would rule. And they were right. It happened gradually, which made it a lot easier to deny. Things would happen gradually. But right now, the gradual period is over.
See you later Miami. Sorry, forests of California. Farmers in the Midwest, good luck. And on and on. Btw, Billings, Montana was 115 degrees yesterday. Just saying.
If I was in my twenties right now I'd be out of my mind about this. I'd be questioning having children. I'd be wondering if the future we look to would be hell. I hope I would be making noise, a lot of it. If you are in your twenties, you better be thinking about it.
We set goals for dealing with this, but they are always a comforting distance in the future. 2050 seems to be the target year. That is 29 years from now. Those target dates are designed to avoid alarm and urgency. They aren't science, they are politics. Put it off until we are dead or retired. Let the kids deal with it.
There's just one problem. Well, actually, a lot of them. It's here, now, and no one is dealing with it. Yes, we are inching our way towards solar, wind power, and electric cars, hoping the logic of capitalism will save our asses, but slowly won't cut it. Old people and poor people will die today from the heat. Not to mention homeless people, but do they count?
Disasters start by culling the fringes, the weakest, the least capable of running. Remember those people freezing to death in Texas last winter because the power went out? Because the state didn't winterize their systems to save money? They weren't the ones with generators. You can't buy a generator in Texas right now.
I don't want to wait it out on my island
I need to witness. As a writer, I have to tell the stories I see whether I like them or not. I'm not liking this one much. When I traveled via train to the West coast before Covid I saw a lot of homeless people. Not a scattering, droves. They are climate refugees fleeing bad weather to go to the golden places, pursuing the dream of nothing more than a mild place to sleep.
I saw that as another indicator of how real this thing is. Hot places are too hot, cold places are too cold. Or not cold enough. So, what do we do?
The million dollar question. Actually, the trillion dollar question. What do I think? I see three societies emerging. That homeless refugee group. A bunch of minimalists who are paring their lives down and working day to day to survive, and the wealthy who will always run to the safe places, the islands like the one I live in. Oh, and number four, the lost, those who believe the lies fed to them by corrupt politicians undermining the belief in science while raking money in from fossil fuel companies. Our own form of oligarchs.
Weirdly, I am optimistic
I'm one of those minimalists. I think we will come out of this but as an utterly changed society, one whose makeup I cannot even come close to defining. The science fiction writers can tackle that one. But this is the life I am in right now and I am living it, not denying it.
After I've had sixty years on this planet I retain some faith in humanity. It has been tested in the past four years, sorely tested. We have apparently survived a pandemic, which btw, may be the result of warming disrupting environments and unearthing a disease we might never have encountered…
So, I have to stop here. This tale keeps unfolding and unfolding. If you read the news with a filter of only looking for climate-related news, you will see it everywhere. It's not coming. It's here.
So think about how you are going to deal with it.
Former software marketer. Former musician. Writer, nine non-fiction books, two novels, Buddhist, train lover. Amateur cook, lover of life most of the time!
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment