Fwd: Some COVID updates (via Dave Pollard, "how to save the world")

Dear ANS group--

Here is the latest on COVID -19 for your information.  Sent to us by a friend.  

the first paragraph asks a question.  I don't know the answer, but maybe in China and Africa, they have previously met a relative of this virus, that makes you have some defenses to it? Just a thought.... I don't think this virus will "just go away" as the president does, but maybe it will get less deadly? Who knows?

--Kim

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Janaia 
Date: Mon, Sep 14, 2020 at 9:51 PM
Subject: Some COVID updates (via Dave Pollard, "how to save the world")
To:

This drew my attention in terms of our behaviors going forward...

• Wearing a mask, keeping duration of contacts short, sticking to activities that are outdoors or in well-ventilated locations, and avoiding large group activities, are all likely more important to preventing infection than maintaining a 6′ distance from others.

———————————————————Other COVID info

How many have actually been infected?: The quality and quantity of testing for this disease have been and continue to be abysmal. Almost nowhere has the availability, promptness and reliability of testing coincided with low enough infection rates so that, as in Taiwan, South Korea and New Zealand, it's possible to quickly identify and isolate new cases in order that life can proceed "normally". There is some indication that in the slums of Mumbai, over half the population has been infected, with more than an order of magnitude lower level of reported cases, hospitalizations and deaths than would be expected if that were so. In China, which has endured severe lockdowns and regulations (some of them spurious), mask wearing indoors is mandatory but social distancing is almost non-existent; yet almost zero new cases are being reported. In Peru, with a population of 33 million and an average age of 27 (note that mortality of CoVid-19 for those under 30 is close to zero), there have been 120,000 excess deaths since February, most of them likely due to Covid-19. But in Nigeria, with 7 times Peru's population, there have been only about 1,000 reported deaths and forecasters don't envision many more over the next four months. How can this be? No one knows.

Chronic underfunding and government interference lead to screw-ups: Just as with wildfire firefighters, governments have been starving public health for decades, and that is contributing enormously to unnecessary deaths, incompetent pronouncements, misinformation and misuse of resources. Bullied by HHS, the US CDC openly discouraged testing for all non-symptomatic people in an insane announcement two weeks ago. Meanwhile the US FDA ludicrously claimed 35% of CoVid-19 deaths would have been prevented if they had been injected with blood plasma. And the most common testing method used in the US produces results far too slowly to be of use and produces a huge number of false positives. On top of that, the social stigma of testing positive is so great that many people refuse to cooperate with tracing and isolating protocols. It's no wonder the public is increasingly skeptical about the quality of its emaciated public institutions, and furious about its government's pandemic response.

The bradykinin hypothesis: A new theory suggests CoVid-19 interferes with the body's regulation of bradykinin, a blood pressure regulator, producing a "bradykinin storm" that results in leaky blood vessels and a ton of related vascular problems, including release of fluids and immune cells into the lungs, which combine with a CoVid-19-produced acid called HLA that "gels" the liquid in the lungs, rendering ventilators useless. Thanks to Jae Mather for the link.

A proper testing system: The always-sensible surgeon and public health researcher Atul Gawande says we could save thousands of lives and quickly return to "normal" if we were prepared to invest in a proper testing regime called "assurance testing" (rapid, regular, easily-accessible, free, quickly-processed, properly-analyzed testing for all) used by several countries (like Iceland). Doing this is a coordination and logistics problem, not a technological or financial one. But with the disjointed, underfunded public health infrastructure in place in North America (and much of the world), it will take a gargantuan effort with a top-down, informed mandate that has the authority, support and resources to make it happen. And going forward, we will need to build up our public health systems nearly from scratch, to world standards.

What else we know now:

• Wearing a mask won't reduce all risk of infection, but may give you a lower "load" of the virus that could dramatically reduce degree of illness and may confer some immunity as well. (More on this research here; thanks to Sam Rose for the link.)
• Wearing a mask, keeping duration of contacts short, sticking to activities that are outdoors or in well-ventilated locations, and avoiding large group activities, are all likely more important to preventing infection than maintaining a 6′ distance from others.
• from Dave Pollard, how to save the world.