Suzyn Smith Webb on the Candidates 2020
The Pros and Cons of Pete Buttigieg
First: I am 100 percent qualified* to tell you that anyone who says:
"X candidate cannot possibly win,"
"Y candidate is the only one who can beat Donald Trump,"
or "Donald Trump is unbeatable."
is pretty much stating their feelings as facts rather than drawing rational conclusions.
Further, I reject the notion that any 2020 candidate is Roosevelt/Debs/McGovern just because people can cherrypick facts to make internet hot takes. 2020 Joe Biden isn't even 1998 Joe Biden as far as political strengths and weaknesses go.
It's probably going to be more comfortable for some candidates to get some kinds of voter turnout than others. The nominee will make mistakes, perhaps ones that will be predictable in retrospect and will piss some people off. Current events will impact the polls somehow. This stuff is just WAY too hard to predict. Nate Silver isn't telling you who is electable, don't let some car dealership assistant manager on twitter tell you either.
Anyway, on to Pete:
Pros- He's from Indiana and judging by how South Bend elected him the freaking mayor, likely to have a lot of appeal to the working-class folks in rust belt states that many people say gave Trump the election. I am skeptical of this, as you can tell from my tone, but I will say that America has a weird thing about rural white people and their exclusive and unique struggles that makes them super relatable to people who are not me. So I do think this is a weird kind of political superpower all by itself.
-He's got a lot of moderate support from local politicians. There's plenty of media accounts of his campaign reaching out to local elected officials like Pete himself. (My congressman endorsed Pete in August.) I'm sure some will call this trawling for superdelegates, but local and state-level politicians have their jobs for a reason and are often good at them. It's a smart strategy if you want to have an indeed national campaign, and Pete rolled one out with skill.
- He's got this "Fix our democracy and get back to the American dream" vibe, which is I think why Boomers seem to like him so much. But yeah, if you want to start a small business, buy a house and settle down with your 2.5 kids, he may be your dude.
-Even if you're not much on Pete's conformist appeal, there's something to be said for "Democracy has served us pretty well, let's not break it" as a campaign theme. He wants to fix the voting rights act and stuff and, in general, maybe playing the long game for centrist Democrats in a way no one else is. (This may be a con for you depending upon how you feel about centrist Democrats.)
-As far as I can tell, the only people who actually like their employer-provided health insurance* are union members whose unions worked really hard to negotiate damn good insurance. Yes, this includes federal government employees. I can understand those people not wanting their insurance to get worse, and Pete's plan should expand coverage for other people slightly while letting Union folks keep their sweet benefits.
-Pete seems to know what he doesn't know as far as foreign policy goes and seems to be dedicated to learning. It's a prominent weak spot given his lack of experience. But he's got a lot of big deal foreign policy folks supporting him at this point. The New Republic did an article about how he's got a lot of ideas, but a lot of those ideas are mostly ideas about how middle-of-the-road approaches kinda like what we're already doing are his thing. At the same time, as I've noted before, most Presidents are into consulting experts within their own cabinet and diplomatic corps for foreign policy direction, and Pete seems to already be good to go on that.
-His disability policy looks pretty good and is more forward-thinking than I would have expected.
Cons.
-Ok, so our democracy has been messed up for a lot of people for a long time, and a solid case can be made that the "American dream" reflects a flawed value system and, indeed, is premised on systemic oppression. Millennials, especially people of color and queer people, tend to be very aware of that, which is why Pete has a rough time with them. The exit polls in Nevada, as reported by the Washington Post, were pretty telling on this point. If you've heard someone say that Pete "isn't queer enough," this is my interpretation of what that means.
- The healthcare pro above notwithstanding, his healthcare plan isn't great and is an improvement on getting rid of the ACA entirely but that's kind of a low bar for Democrats. It still relies on old school economics applying to Health Insurance Companies in a way that they haven't in a long time because lobbyists earn their giant paychecks.
- His ideas for climate change are pretty much like "Let's use tax incentives to PAY polluters to pollute less" and all kinda sound like the ideas Joe Biden had in the eighties that weren't nothing, but, well, parts of Australia are still on fire right now, so maybe we kinda need to step it up in the new ideas and efforts departments.
- Aa I noted above with foreign policy, he connects with people who have experience doing things to make up for the fact that he doesn't really have much executive experience. Obama, more or less did the same thing, and it more or less worked. But it isn't the same as having the expertise and the connections that a lot of the other candidates have spent a lot of time building.
-The whole "announcing a bunch of black leaders had endorsed his plan that was named after Frederick Douglass, except they hadn't, and it wasn't much of a plan anyway" was some embarrassing bullshit to have to watch. I really don't want another clown show like that, but I feel many are inevitable as Pete tries to reach out beyond rural whites.
-Black voters have told poll after poll that they aren't into him, but they will vote for whomever the Democratic nominee is. I guess this is a "pro" to some people, but treating black folks as "trapped" with the Democrats isn't going to work forever. I'd like to find a candidate who is interested in them and wants to work for them.
*I have HALF A MASTER'S DEGREE in political science, once threw up in the bathroom of the Capitol Hill Republican club, and sat next to a presidential grandchild in US history class junior year. I promise you that this alone is more boots-on-the-ground political experience than most of the people declaring that other people can't possibly win.
** Medicaid and the VA have access issues but are generally pretty great, but I'm not counting them as public. Ok, Medicaid is better in some states than others and best in states like Massachusetts, where there's a state program on top or alongside it.
EDIT: I had misread something and thought Kerry had endorsed Pete. My bad. Hat tip to Nettie Britts for pointing that out. I also think that while I'm going for a simple explanation of what's up with these candidates I went too simple to Pete's foreign policy. Going to hang an article or two in the comments.
Comments
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Suzyn Smith Webb https://www.facebook.com/suzyn.webb/posts/10156593019636372
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Suzyn Smith Webb https://www.facebook.com/suzyn.webb/posts/10156618417721372
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Colleen Kelly Raised eyebrow ... interest not judgment
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Joel Monka Good assessment. I think one pro you didn't mention was being a veteran, which has a lot of public sentiment. One con not mentioned was being so young, which I know has a lot of people leery. All told, I think he might make a better VP pick than leading the ticket; there, his pluses would be stronger than his minuses.
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Suzyn Smith Webb Joel Monka, The way voters treated John Kerry destroyed my faith that being a veteran means anything significant electorally.
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Melani Ladygo I am REALLY appreciating these, Suz. Thank you. (Side note: I now have "Rock the Boat" stuck in my head. ...said I'd like to know where....)
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Nettie Britts I thought Kerry was with Biden.
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Suzyn Smith Webb Nettie Britts huh. Google says you're right. Will update
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Suzyn Smith Webb https://peteforamerica.com/videos/national-security-new-era/
PETEFORAMERICA.COM
Pete Buttigieg for President - Official Campaign Website
Pete Buttigieg for President - Official Campaign Website
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Suzyn Smith Webb https://www.google.com/.../grading-pete.../%3foutputType=amp
WASHINGTONPOST.COM
Perspective | Grading Pete Buttigieg's foreign policy speech
Perspective | Grading Pete Buttigieg's foreign policy speech
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Carolyn Slattery One thing I think is a pro for Buttigieg is his military service. I think this is what appeals to me the most about him.
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Suzyn Smith Webb Carolyn Slattery that you're the second person to say that makes me think I was maybe too quick to discount that.
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Carolyn Slattery Suzyn Smith Webb not that it appeals to voters, but that it gives him experience in serving the country and making quick decisions, also knowing when u need backup or an expert. But I agree that after the swift boat bullsh*t I don't have faith in this winning over voters. But it gives me a little more faith in him, especially considering his lack of political experience
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Diana Kaoru Cheang Threw up!
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Suzyn Smith Webb What you should really be questioning there is "once," but that was a long time ago.
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Hilary HL Your comment about America having a thing for rural whites is 💯 a whole mood.
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Suzyn Smith Webb I really am not sure what's a cultural difference, what's a class difference and what's me being a judgmental bitch. My time as a small-town reporter and my further reading on the subject only muddied waters.
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Hilary HL I hear you.
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On Amy Klobuchar
Someone on my feed asked for the Pros and Cons of Amy Klobuchar, so I wrote that up. Y'all might as well see it too.
Pros: She's a moderate. She has a lot of the pros of Hillary Clinton without Hillary's baggage and her own baggage doesn't seem to bother her supporters. Her health plan will have a better time getting past the Republicans.
The Rs are going to have a lot of trouble painting her as a scary liberal. At the least, I'm concerned that the election of Sanders or Warren will freak out the republican base so much we get an R supermajority in 2022. Midterms in 2022 are impossible to predict but I have trouble envisioning this will happen with President Klobuchar.
She cares about unglamorous stuff like infrastructure.
She seems smart and she gets shit done. While her plans are conservative, that focus on small achievable goals makes her one of the most productive members of the senate.
Cons: Her disability policy doesn't read like it had much input from actual people with disabilities though at least she has said policy. Still, it's very "put as many people with disabilities to work as possible" in feel rather than "care about the problems people with disabilities actually say they have and treat them as people." A lot of her social policies have this feel as far as I can tell.
Said health plan will work for some republicans because it's pretty stingy.
The Rs may be able to paint her as a scary liberal anyway because a lot of the electorate is quite gullible. (e.g. "John Kerry is a BAD war hero" "There's no actual evidence that Donald Trump is a racist or even unusually sexist" and anybody who ever expected Bill Clinton to behave himself around women.)
She does not seem to care about Climate Change.
She seems unkind, to the point of cruelty if you look at the parts of her record as a prosecutor she's most proud of.
Comments
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Maureen Killoran I want to like her. But I see, sense and discern (three different was of looking at her stuff) that at core she is uncaring. We've got a whole whack of that right now, not sure more would be a good thing. But . . .
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Suzyn Smith Webb But the American electorate has looked at so much cruelty in the last four years and been OK with it, her unkindness almost makes her seem more electable because it's a "flaw" than functionally isn't one.
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Ila Klion This seems to be accurate, it is much like my assessment as well.
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Suzyn Smith Webb If Klobochar wins, this woman will be at Brunch rather than marching in what solidarity such folks ever achieve with the less fortunate.
I'm being judgmental here, but show me the lie.
That said, there's A LOT to be said for the less fortunate having at least somewhat less to march about.
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L. Michelle Harris She didn't prosecute bad cops.
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Suzyn Smith Webb I found this a helpful exercise. I may do a few more of these in the leadup to Super Tuesday.
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Ryan Hackel Until she has a fleshed out foreign policy, she belongs in Congress, not the Executive branch. Same for Sanders and Warren.
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Suzyn Smith Webb By far the best foreign policy candidate is Biden. But it's hard to get too excited about anybody's foreign policy until there's some suggestion that America can get its own shit together. Most presidents get by on foreign policy not on their own exp…See More
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Suzyn Smith Webb I'm not saying you're wrong at all. Just that your priorities don't seem to be America's. As someone inclined to prioritize sick poor people and more broadly the civil rights of the marginalized, I sympathize.
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Ryan Hackel Domestic policy belongs with Congress. The President's job stays in the Executive Branch. Nearly every presidential candidate from either party in the last 20-ish years has forgotten this. Every Candidate needs to sit down and actually read Article II of the Constitution. That is the job they are applying for. If they care more about health care or criminal justice reform or livable wages, the real power for change rests with Congress, and there is only so much you can accomplish within the wiggle room of the cabinet-level departments.
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Suzyn Smith Webb I would say that the vast swings in domestic policy in those issues those presidents would seem to have created belies this somewhat.
More to the point on foreign policy, where does one get the background to be a true foreign policy president before a president becomes one?
I may be reading your "20-ish years" comment too literally, but going back 24 years, we've got Bob Dole. (Bill Clinton had for years of experience at that point.) Dole was injured in the war and in Congress by 1950. Between then and the 1996 election, he was in the legislative branch.
Someone has archived his campaign website for educational purposes. Here's his foreign policy section:
http://www.dolekemp96.org/agenda/issues/foreign.htm
DOLEKEMP96.ORG
Where Bob Dole Stands on Foreign Policy
Where Bob Dole Stands on Foreign Policy
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Suzyn Smith Webb By contrast, Pete Buttigieg would seem to be a logical contender for "Least qualified democratic party candidate on foreign policy." He was in the Navy, he was a fancy lawyer, he was mayor of a city the size of Roanoke.
Beyond the theoretical, his …See More
PETEFORAMERICA.COM
Pete Buttigieg for President - Official Campaign Website
Pete Buttigieg for President - Official Campaign Website
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Suzyn Smith Webb So, who's to say which candidates have read Article II? And who's to say these folks are wrong to focus on the domestic when that seems to be what gets a person elected?
And how does one get presidential level foreign policy experience?
This stuff is complicated, yo.
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Suzyn Smith Webb FWIW, that also got me looking at other Democratic primary candidates' foreign policy proposals and I'd like to shoutout MY favorite Elizabeth Warren for her plan focusing on rebuilding the executive branch side of the state department so they are bette…See More
ELIZABETHWARREN.COM
Rebuild the State Department | Elizabeth Warren
Rebuild the State Department | Elizabeth Warren
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Jenny Blue Yeah, "moderate" really isn't a pro in my book. All it really means is she won't even try to fix all the damage the last four years caused. Just spew some crap about "healing" and "needing to move on" and act like saying that fixed anything.
And as you said, the Republicans will depict her as a "crazy liberal" anyway.
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Daniël van den Bos She apparently also treats her staff quite horrible. There are some details and some more not very flattering descriptions in the article.
https://www.nytimes.com/.../poli.../amy-klobuchar-staff.html…See More
NYTIMES.COM
How Amy Klobuchar Treats Her Staff
How Amy Klobuchar Treats Her Staff
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Jennifer Cassidy Her age is a pro for me. IMO all the candidates should be in their 50's or 60's and be senators or governors or perhaps mayors of large cities.
And I wonder how much truth there is to the she's a "bitchy boss" rumors. It's certainly possible, I just wonder. Then again the male candidates are grabbing pussies and sniffing hair so given the choice I think I'll go with clean the comb.
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Mary Speers Thank you for this! That PoliSci background benefits us all ❤️
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Mary Speers Yes please to more on the others.
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Tirani Realta Link See my most recent posting about my concerns with her big tent comments post New Hampshire primary. women's rights are human rights, and there is no place in the Democratic big tent for anti-choice politicians.
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David Blanchard Just saw a clip from a panel in Nevada. Pete, Tom , and Amy. Host asked them if they could name the President of Mexico. Only PB could answer. Kind of embarrassing.
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David Blanchard https://www.usnews.com/.../in-interview-klobuchar-steyer...
USNEWS.COM
In Interview, Klobuchar, Steyer Can't Name Mexican President
In Interview, Klobuchar, Steyer Can't Name Mexican President
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The Pros and Cons of Joe Biden:
(I need to start writing these faster if I'm going to get through everyone I want to write about by Super Tuesday. I am mindfully starting with distinguishing the moderates from each other because I think that's more interesting. Honestly, I'm putting off writing about Bernie Sanders because my Facebook friends are lovely, but this is still the internet. I am gathering information from a variety of sources as I go and also relying on my memory. If I say something essential to you, please look it up and make sure I'm right.)
Pros:
He really has consistently pulled the country leftward in positive ways. Sure, his record is mixed. Everyone's is. I could point to some gross stuff, plenty of other people have. But yeah, "tried to make the Reagan years suck less for poor people" is no small thing.
He's a good person. His kids needed him, he showed up. His country needed him, he showed up. I respect that.
In the Klobuchar thread, Ryan and I had a talk about how the constitution considers Foreign Policy the president's primary job. Whether this remains functionally true in America today is above my pay grade. But the person most qualified to do the foreign policy job is Joe Biden by a LOT. This is not me saying that WHAT he'd do with it is what you want. This is me saying he's got the experience and the knowledge to do it.
Black voters trust him. He's lost a little ground over the last few weeks as of this morning per 538, but he's done well with them for a long time. I trust black voters, and they have consistent voter turnout that gets even better with enthusiasm. If they have a passion for him, that's no small thing.
Joe Biden is really concerned about the climate crisis and has been for decades. He was pretty into fossil fuels back in the day, but if America had been following along as he evolved
even at his slow pace, we'd be in better shape.
If you like the ACA model of Healthcare, he's probably in the best place to save and promote it.
He is pretty well-liked and trusted by Republicans. "Work across the aisle" isn't everybody's favorite strategy. But if it's yours, he's a good pick.
He is even more well-liked and trusted by mainstream conservation groups, unions, the NAACP, the Brady folks, National Latino Congreso, and does pretty well with the ACLU. I don't think anybody loves him all the time. But he has done a lot of good for a lot of years and that's a staggering array of people to like and trust him.
He's even MORE well-liked by federal workers and the deep federal bureaucracy. That's a massive deal for getting things done. There's a deep well of competence behind that goofy facade.
Cons:
Americans just aren't that into him as president. He's tried to run several times before and lost. He's not doing really well at the polls at this point.
The days of "Work across the aisle" and perhaps many more of Biden's assumptions about how to get things done in government such as "make a lot of deals with corporations to get good things for the country" may be broken. If that's indeed the case, a Biden administration would be a mess.
When I think about Anita Hill, I still want to puke. If Boomers always get to whine about the sixties. I get to say that.
If you think America can do better on healthcare than the ACA, he's probably not your guy.
If he has good people telling him how to behave, he just doesn't listen to them and the problem may be deeper still. I don't dislike him, but I've gone "for fuck's sake, Joe" at my screen more than once reading about him making a "gay bathhouse" reference at the LGBTQ town hall (Joe?), or just touching women in ways than come off weird (Joe), or touching a disabled guy on the face (Joe!). In the grand scheme of things, maybe we should give him a clueless old guy pass. Still, I'm really tired of my president being a fuckup in really avoidable ways, and TBH it's kinda hard to buy that he really cares about LGBTQ folks if he still has a "before the AIDS crisis" set of references about who they are. People who have had lots of chances to learn and have chosen not to usually don't want to?
Comments
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Suzyn Smith Webb https://www.facebook.com/suzyn.webb/posts/10156593019636372
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Maureen Killoran Well done, Suzyn, on this and your previous analyses. Thank you.
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Maggie Standish I really appreciate these. Thank you.
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Ryan Hackel Biden has more experience in the executive branch than all of the other candidates put together... except for Bloomberg. Being mayour of NYC is probably far more demanding than being Vice President, since NYC counts itself counts as a state. Where the hell are all the Democratic governers this year?
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Pros and Cons of Elizabeth Warren
Pros
-I supported her before I'd ever heard about the Corona Virus and I support her even more now. She's straight up the person I want in charge when things are going badly for the country. I feel like she will listen to the experts and do the right thing even if it makes her unpopular.
- She has shown over and over that she's willing to adapt to circumstances and change. That may be a con for you. I've always liked that and I like it even more as the world seems to change more and more quickly.
-If there's a brokered convention, she and her ability to make things happen will have a seat at the table. FWIW, I am not actually particularly worried about a brokered convention. I mean, I'm sure it will be a mess while it's going on but some kind of "team of rivals" will likely result, be it one of people or one of ideas. If, say, the only thing she can get into someone else's platform is a focus on white-collar crime on a national and global scale (which would seem to be an issue close to her heart, and not one particularly interesting to anyone else), that would do a LOT of good.
-This woman realized that we needed a federal agency and she made that happen.
- Most of her plans aren't THAT expensive by the standards of Donald Trump almost starting a war with Iran and giving another $5 trillion tax cut to the wealthy. That the way to save Social Security is to make social security taxes more progressive seems, well, obvious? America's resources actually are quite plentiful when wealthy people put some of what they got out of the system back in toward the bottom of the economy and a whole lot of possibilities open up for a country of our GDP if "let the richest people churn absolutely as much money as possible" isn't one of our primary economic goals. Letting poorer folks have some money to spend churns money just fine.
-FWIW, her foreign policy is more of the same kind of economic thinking. She wants to crack down on global corruption.
-Not letting ex-Congresscritters be lobbyists would be a significant step toward ACTUALLY draining the swamp.
Cons
- She's probably to the left of many of my Facebook friends, and my Facebook friends are to the left of America. That's going to be a big hurdle in her getting things done. How big a hurdle is hard to predict. But I feel safe saying a big one will be the Supreme Court alone to say nothing of the Republicans in congress should they be able to get a majority at midterms, which is likely if she's getting much done.
-The first thing I knew about her was the "claiming to have Native American heritage when she didn't" issue. I'm white. My grandmother said that kind of thing, I believed it as a kid and grew to be skeptical of it. So on one level I kinda get it? But Senator Warren took a REALLY LONG TIME to learn from that and start listening. I feel weird that I'm still talking about this when it seems like literally every other candidate has said or done something as bad far more recently, but I also would be remiss if I left it out.
- Some of her ideas may not be that great. I'm not a particular fan of big tech, I say, drafting this on a google doc, my apple watch on my wrist, having watched Murder She Wrote on Amazon Prime video yesterday, but I'm not sure why breaking up big tech is actually going to solve most of the problems people have with big tech. In general, I don't feel like I have as good a grasp of this part of her economic plans though TBH I'm guessing none of this part is going to happen anyway.
-A lot of really smart Democrats who were really nice people have lost presidential elections in my adult life.
-As the New York Times memorably put it "Elizabeth Warren won black activists, she's losing the Black Vote." The support of activists working on what they believe is best for their communities doesn't always translate to the support of communities because communities are diverse. People often think that the people left of themselves don't know this, pretty much everyone who at all works around trying to make the world suck less does. There's just no good answer.
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Anyway, as I pretty much knew going in, I'm voting for Elizabeth Warren.
But it was fun to read up on and write about just about everyone else. Thank you for letting me externally process my thinking about the primary through you, particularly if you commented. When I was a teenager I wanted to be a political reporter/commentator and it was fun to pretend to be one off-and-on for a month.
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