Friday, January 26, 2018

ANS -- 'Every New Vehicle Will Be Electric' by 2025, Disruption Expert Says

This is a very short article, but the guy seems to be an expert.  What do you think?
--Kim


'Every New Vehicle Will Be Electric' by 2025, Disruption Expert Says

January 22, 2018
file
    

A Silicon Valley entrepreneur and author has explained how electric vehicles will disrupt and change transportation across the world.

But first, Tony Seba — who is an instructor in disruption and clean energy at Stanford University's Continuing Studies Program, explained to an audience at the World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, exactly what the nature is of a "disruptor."

"A disruption is when technologies converge and create a new market and helps to destroy or transform an existing industry," Seba said.

As examples, he said highlighted what digital cameras did to film or how Uber created the 'ride-hailing' market.

"Disruption happens from the outside. Neither Google nor Apple had ever built a phone — now they own that market. And whoever is the incumbent is gone," Seba said.

And he added that it is usually "experts, insiders and mainstream analysts who dismiss disruptors."

In the energy industry, he said this happens most often with solar: "Solar has grown by 40 percent every year, yet mainstream forecasts [and he singled out those of the International Energy Agency] are linear, siloed and backwards-looking."

To stress how electric vehicles have already become disruptors, Seba said: "Batteries are going down in cost by 20 percent a year. Dyson is investing £2.5 billion to develop an EV by 2020. There are 2,000 moving parts in a combustion engine — an EV has 18, so it's ten-times cheaper to maintain."

And he predicted that "by 2025 every new vehicle will be electric."

Lead image credit: CC0 Creative Commons | Pixabay


Thursday, January 25, 2018

ANS -- THE INVENTION OF CAPITALISM

This is a bit long, but at least read the first half.  It is about the history of capitalism -- where it came from, what ideas promoted it.  You need to know this.  
--Kim



THE INVENTION OF CAPITALISM

By Yasha Levine,  Sustainable Human Minds.
 
EDUCATE!

Above photo: Happy Faces of Productivity.

How A Self-Sufficient Peasantry Was Whipped Into Industrial Wage Slaves.

"…everyone but an idiot knows that the lower classes must be kept poor, or they will never be industrious."

—Arthur Young; 1771

Our popular economic wisdom says that capitalism equals freedom and free societies, right? Well, if you ever suspected that the logic is full of shit, then I'd recommend checking a book called The Invention of Capitalism, written by an economic historian named Michael Perelmen, who's been exiled to Chico State, a redneck college in rural California, for his lack of freemarket friendliness. And Perelman has been putting his time in exile to damn good use, digging deep into the works and correspondence of Adam Smith and his contemporaries to write a history of the creation of capitalism that goes beyond superficial The Wealth of Nations fairy tale and straight to the source, allowing you to read the early capitalists, economists, philosophers, clergymen and statesmen in their own words. And it ain't pretty.

One thing that the historical record makes obviously clear is that Adam Smith and his laissez-faire buddies were a bunch of closet-case statists, who needed brutal government policies to whip the English peasantry into a good capitalistic workforce willing to accept wage slavery.

Francis Hutcheson, from whom Adam Smith learned all about the virtue of natural liberty, wrote: "it is the one great design of civil laws to strengthen by political sanctions the several laws of nature. … The populace needs to be taught, and engaged by laws, into the best methods of managing their own affairs and exercising mechanic art."

Yep, despite what you might have learned, the transition to a capitalistic society did not happen naturally or smoothly. See, English peasants didn't want to give up their rural communal lifestyle, leave their land and go work for below-subsistence wages in shitty, dangerous factories being set up by a new, rich class of landowning capitalists. And for good reason, too. Using Adam Smith's own estimates of factory wages being paid at the time in Scotland, a factory-peasant would have to toil for more than three days to buy a pair of commercially produced shoes. Or they could make their own traditional brogues using their own leather in a matter of hours, and spend the rest of the time getting wasted on ale. It's really not much of a choice, is it?

But in order for capitalism to work, capitalists needed a pool of cheap, surplus labor. So what to do? Call in the National Guard!

Faced with a peasantry that didn't feel like playing the role of slave, philosophers, economists, politicians, moralists and leading business figures began advocating for government action. Over time, they enacted a series of laws and measures designed to push peasants out of the old and into the new by destroying their traditional means of self-support.

"The brutal acts associated with the process of stripping the majority of the people of the means of producing for themselves might seem far removed from the laissez-faire reputation of classical political economy," writes Perelman. "In reality, the dispossession of the majority of small-scale producers and the construction of laissez-faire are closely connected, so much so that Marx, or at least his translators, labeled this expropriation of the masses as ''primitive accumulation.''

Perelman outlines the many different policies through which peasants were forced off the land—from the enactment of so-called Game Laws that prohibited peasants from hunting, to the destruction of the peasant productivity by fencing the commons into smaller lots—but by far the most interesting parts of the book are where you get to read Adam Smith's proto-capitalist colleagues complaining and whining about how peasants are too independent and comfortable to be properly exploited, and trying to figure out how to force them to accept a life of wage slavery.

This pamphlet from the time captures the general attitude towards successful, self-sufficient peasant farmers:

The possession of a cow or two, with a hog, and a few geese, naturally exalts the peasant. . . . In sauntering after his cattle, he acquires a habit of indolence. Quarter, half, and occasionally whole days, are imperceptibly lost. Day labour becomes disgusting; the aversion in- creases by indulgence. And at length the sale of a half-fed calf, or hog, furnishes the means of adding intemperance to idleness.

While another pamphleteer wrote:

Nor can I conceive a greater curse upon a body of people, than to be thrown upon a spot of land, where the productions for subsistence and food were, in great measure, spontaneous, and the climate required or admitted little care for raiment or covering.

John Bellers, a Quaker "philanthropist" and economic thinker saw independent peasants as a hindrance to his plan of forcing poor people into prison-factories, where they would live, work and produce a profit of 45% for aristocratic owners:

"Our Forests and great Commons (make the Poor that are upon them too much like the Indians) being a hindrance to Industry, and are Nurseries of Idleness and Insolence."

Daniel Defoe, the novelist and trader, noted that in the Scottish Highlands "people were extremely well furnished with provisions. … venison exceedingly plentiful, and at all seasons, young or old, which they kill with their guns whenever they find it.''

To Thomas Pennant, a botanist, this self-sufficiency was ruining a perfectly good peasant population:

"The manners of the native Highlanders may be expressed in these words: indolent to a high degree, unless roused to war, or any animating amusement."

If having a full belly and productive land was the problem, then the solution to whipping these lazy bums into shape was obvious: kick 'em off the land and let em starve.

Arthur Young, a popular writer and economic thinker respected by John Stuart Mill, wrote in 1771: "everyone but an idiot knows that the lower classes must be kept poor, or they will never be industrious." Sir William Temple, a politician and Jonathan Swift's boss, agreed, and suggested that food be taxed as much as possible to prevent the working class from a life of "sloth and debauchery."

Temple also advocated putting four-year-old kids to work in the factories, writing ''for by these means, we hope that the rising generation will be so habituated to constant employment that it would at length prove agreeable and entertaining to them.'' Some thought that four was already too old. According to Perelmen, "John Locke, often seen as a philosopher of liberty, called for the commencement of work at the ripe age of three." Child labor also excited Defoe, who was joyed at the prospect that "children after four or five years of age…could every one earn their own bread.'' But that's getting off topic…

Even David Hume, that great humanist, hailed poverty and hunger as positive experiences for the lower classes, and even blamed the "poverty" of France on its good weather and fertile soil:

"'Tis always observed, in years of scarcity, if it be not extreme, that the poor labour more, and really live better."

Reverend Joseph Townsend believed that restricting food was the way to go:

"[Direct] legal constraint [to labor] . . . is attended with too much trouble, violence, and noise, . . . whereas hunger is not only a peaceable, silent, unremitted pressure, but as the most natural motive to industry, it calls forth the most powerful exertions. . . . Hunger will tame the fiercest animals, it will teach decency and civility, obedience and subjugation to the most brutish, the most obstinate, and the most perverse."

Patrick Colquhoun, a merchant who set up England's first private "preventative police" force to prevent dock workers from supplementing their meager wages with stolen goods, provided what may be the most lucid explanation of how hunger and poverty correlate to productivity and wealth creation:

Poverty is that state and condition in society where the individual has no surplus labour in store, or, in other words, no property or means of subsistence but what is derived from the constant exercise of industry in the various occupations of life. Poverty is therefore a most necessary and indispensable ingredient in society, without which nations and communities could not exist in a state of civilization. It is the lot of man. It is the source of wealth, since without poverty, there could be no labour; there could be no riches, no refinement, no comfort, and no benefit to those who may be possessed of wealth.

Colquhoun's summary is so on the money, it has to be repeated. Because what was true for English peasants is still just as true for us:

"Poverty is therefore a most necessary and indispensable ingredient in society…It is the source of wealth, since without poverty, there could be no labour; there could be no riches, no refinement, no comfort, and no benefit to those who may be possessed of wealth."

Economic Power Has To Be Universally Distributed

While in the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, capital owners needed massive manpower to build a growth economy, poverty a not a necessary and indispensable ingredient in society as we can structure our institutions to empower EVERY child, woman, and man to become productive and financially self-reliant without "slave labor."

Binary economics and democratic capitalism, or what could be termed economic personalism, is founded on the principal that economic power has to be universally distributed amongst individual citizens and never allowed to concentrate. It is a value system based on the importance and dignity of every human person. The "pursuit of happiness" phrase in the Declaration of Independence was interchangeable in those times with the word "property." The original phrasing was "the right to life, liberty and property." "The pursuit of happiness" phrase was a substitute for the "property" phrase. In the forerunner of the Declaration of Independence and Bill of Rights, the 1776 Virginia Declaration of Rights declared that securing "Life, Liberty, with the means of acquiring and possessing Property" is the highest purpose for which any just government is formed. Democratizing economic power will return us to the innocence and economic power diffusion we had in a pre-industrial society where labor was the principal factor in the creation of wealth.

In simple terms, binary economics recognizes that there are two independent factors of production: humans (labor workers who contribute manual, intellectual, creative and entrepreneurial work) and non-human capital (land; structures; infrastructure; tools; machines; robotics; computer processing; certain intangibles that have the characteristics of property, such as patents and trade or firm names; and the like which are owned by people individually or in association with others). Fundamentally, economic value is created through human and non-human contributions. NOTE, real physical productive capital isn't money; it is measured in money (financial capital), but it is really producing power and earning power through ownership of the non-human factor of production. Financial capital, such as stocks and bonds, is just an ownership claim on the productive power of real capital. In the law, property is the bundle of rights that determines one's relationship to things. As Kelso and binary economist Patricia Hetter put it, "Money is not a part of the visible sector of the economy; people do not consume money. Money is not a physical factor of production, but rather a yardstick for measuring economic input, economic outtake and the relative values of the real goods and services of the economic world. Money provides a method of measuring obligations, rights, powers and privileges. It provides a means whereby certain individuals can accumulate claims against others, or against the economy as a whole, or against many economies. It is a system of symbols that many economists substitute for the visible sector and its productive enterprises, goods and services, thereby losing sight of the fact that a monetary system is a part only of the invisible sector of the economy, and that its adequacy can only be measured by its effect upon the visible sector."

The role of physical productive capital is to do ever more of the work, which produces wealth and thus income to those who own productive capital assets. Full employment is not an objective of businesses. Companies strive to keep labor input and other costs at a minimum in order to maximize profits for the owners. They strive to minimize marginal costs, the cost of producing an additional unit of a good, product or service once a business has its fixed costs in place, in order to stay competitive with other companies racing to stay competitive through technological innovation. Reducing marginal costs enables businesses to increase profits, offer goods, products and services at a lower price (which people as consumers seek), or both. Increasingly, new technologies are enabling companies to achieve near-zero cost growth without having to hire people. Thus, private sector job creation in numbers that match the pool of people willing and able to work is constantly being eroded by physical productive capital's ever increasing role.

The result is that the price of products and services are extremely competitive as consumers will always seek the lowest cost/quality/performance alternative, and thus for-profit companies are constantly competing with each other (on a local, national and global scale) for attracting "customers with money" to purchase their products or services in order to generate profits and thus return on investment (ROI).

Over the past century there has been an ever-accelerating shift to productive capital — which reflects tectonic shifts in the technologies of production. The mixture of labor worker input and capital worker input has been rapidly changing at an exponential rate of increase for over 239 years in step with the Industrial Revolution (starting in 1776) and had even been changing long before that with man's discovery of the first tools, but at a much slower rate. Up until the close of the nineteenth century, the United States remained a working democracy, with the production of products and services dependent on labor worker input. When the American Industrial Revolution began and subsequent technological advances amplified the productive power of non-human capital, plutocratic finance channeled its ownership into fewer and fewer hands, as we continue to witness today with government by the wealthy evidenced at all levels.

People invented "tools" to reduce toil, enable otherwise impossible production, create new highly automated industries, and significantly change the way in which products and services are produced from labor intensive to capital intensive — the core function of technological invention and innovation. Binary economist Louis Kelso attributed most changes in the productive capacity of the world since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution to technological improvements in our capital assets, and a relatively diminishing proportion to human labor. Capital, in Kelso's terms, does not "enhance" labor productivity (labor's ability to produce economic goods). In fact, the opposite is true. It makes many forms of labor unnecessary. Because of this undeniable fact, Kelso asserted that, "free-market forces no longer establish the 'value' of labor. Instead, the price of labor is artificially elevated by government through minimum wage legislation, overtime laws, and collective bargaining legislation or by government employment and government subsidization of private employment solely to increase consumer income."

Furthermore, according to Kelso, productive capital is increasingly the source of the world's economic growth and, therefore, should become the source of added property ownership incomes for all. Kelso postulated that if both labor and capital are independent factors of production, and if capital's proportionate contributions are increasing relative to that of labor, then equality of opportunity and economic justice demands that the right to property (and access to the means of acquiring and possessing property) must in justice be extended to all. Yet, sadly, the American people and its leaders still pretend to believe that labor is becoming more productive, and ignore the necessity to broaden personal ownership of wealth-creating, income-producing capital assets simultaneously with the growth of the economy.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018

ANS -- Don’t Fear Trump–Fear the Next Republican President

Read this and heed this.  I think he's onto something.  Democrats need to come up with a real alternative to the Republicans -- real policies that will benefit the non-rich in America.  
--Kim




BENJAMIN STUDEBAKER

Yet Another Attempt to Make the World a Better Place by Writing Things

Don't Fear Trump–Fear the Next Republican President

by Benjamin Studebaker

I've long argued that the Democratic Party needs to use its time in the wilderness to remake itself so it can pursue and deliver real benefits for poor and working class voters and be seen to do so in its campaigns. This remaking necessarily requires a period of disunity and chaos within the Democratic Party–central questions about what being a Democrat is for need to be asked, and different people will and should give different answers. Those differences should be resolved in blood-soaked primaries. But I'm increasingly concerned it's not going to happen–too many Democrats seem to believe that the party needs to unify at all costs to present the strongest possible electoral challenge to Trump in 2018 and 2020. This is a dangerous misreading of the historical situation. The biggest threat to the United States is not the Trump presidency–it is the next Republican presidency, or perhaps the one after that. Let me explain…

The Republican Party has been on a bad trajectory for a very long time. After the riots at the 1968 Democratic National Convention, both parties changed their primary systems to reduce the influence of party insiders. The Democrats gave their insiders–the superdelegates–1/6th of the vote, leaving the rest to primary voters. The Republicans went further and gave the primary voters full control. In a center-left party, increasing the influence of the primary voters gives left wing elements an opportunity to wing the party's voters over, and Bernie Sanders benefited immeasurably from the change. But in a center-right party, opening up the primary process just leads to deprofessionalization. Republican primary voters have increasingly voted for charismatic but nonsubstantive candidates. Nixon was the last Republican nominated on the old system. He didn't face serious primary challenges in 1972, but in 1976 his successor (Gerald Ford) was very nearly knocked off in a primary challenge by Ronald Reagan. Reagan was regarded by the old party establishment as too right wing and even rather foolish. In 1968, Reagan ran against Nixon and got more votes than Nixon in states that held primaries. But because the primaries weren't binding in 1968, that made no difference. At the convention, Reagan not only lost to Nixon, he came third after the relatively liberal Nelson Rockefeller. That's how much the old establishment hated Reagan.

In 1980 Reagan defeated the much more experienced and better qualified George H.W. Bush. Bush would likely have crushed Reagan under the old primary system. In 1980, the Republican Party was still divided about whether to embrace trickle down economics–Bush famous called it "voodoo economics".

But Reagan–ever the radical–jumped all over it and used his acting chops to sell the thing. And so began the Republican Party's polygamous marriage with both charisma and neoliberalism. After Reagan, Bush became president and tried to govern like a Nixonian, even raising taxes. But by this point the party had already developed an anti-tax fundamentalism. When Pat Buchanan failed to bump Bush off in the 1992 primaries, Ross Perot captured large parts of the "disgruntled neoliberal" faction, narrowly handing the presidency to Bill Clinton. The Republicans did not forget this, and they've started every new Republican presidency since with a push for a tax cut.

In 2000 they picked George W. Bush–the guy you'd like to have a beer with–over John McCain. After Bush's presidency ended ignominiously, they went back to McCain, but McCain was so terrified that he'd fail to turn out Republican voters if he didn't appoint a profoundly stupid person to the ticket that he named Sarah Palin his VP. Romney narrowly fended off a series of very far right and very thick (but charismatic) challengers, ranging from Herman Cain to Michelle Bachmann. But he lost in the general election. In 2016 the Romney wing was overconfident about their ability to win primaries, putting up several Romney-type candidates. In the meantime, the looney toon wing got tactically smarter, mostly focusing its energies around Ted Cruz. But of course, Donald Trump hijacked that movement, much to Cruz's frustration.

The point in mentioning all this history is that over time the Republican Party has nominated increasingly hard right individuals who run more on their charisma with the party base than on any serious managerial competence. Those who deviate from this tend to lose in primaries or to fail to turnout the Republican base in generals. The Republican base gravitates toward hard right and foolish-yet-charismatic blowhards.

And yet, despite this, the biggest failure in this period belongs to the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party has failed, over and over again, to produce a realignment which would force the Republican Party to change direction. In the 1930s, Franklin Roosevelt responded to a crisis with bold, creative policies that delivered massive, tangible benefits to poor and working people. Because FDR did these things, the Republicans were forced to go in his direction to stay politically competitive. Even just a few years into FDR's absurdly long presidency, they were promising to improve the programs they once opposed. By the post-war period, the Republican Party looked much more like Dwight Eisenhower than it did Ronald Reagan or Calvin Coolidge.

The Democratic Party has, time and again, failed to disrupt the fell relationship between charisma and increasingly far right politics. When it wins office, it acts as a caretaker, stalling for time until the next Republican wins and makes a pig's breakfast out of the whole thing. And the next Republican is usually more right wing than the last one. This happens because when one of these bad Republicans is in office, Democrats flip out and prioritize getting rid of the bad president over building a serious alternative to the Republican direction. They throw out would-be centrist compromisers, some charismatic (Bill Clinton and Barack Obama), some not (Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Al Gore). But the deals these people cut with Republicans are never very good for workers. In the past, Democrats have gutted welfare (Clinton's welfare reform) and imposed austerity (Obama's budget control act). They've allowed Republicans to control the policy narrative, even when Democrats are in office.

This has to stop, but it won't stop if the Democrats once again focus on unity to win as many seats as possible in 2018. If the Democrats win in 2020 with another charismatic centrist who fails to produce a realignment and force the Republicans to compete politically on our terms, we are likely to see another Republican president in 2024 or 2028. That Republican president will likely be even further right than Trump and could be significantly more dangerous to us. Trump doesn't know much about how government works and he screws up a lot. He also changes his opinions like the wind. The next one could know how things work and really believe. Our goal must not be to beat Trump, it must be to prevent this future Republican from ever becoming president. We need a Democratic Party so compelling that it can force the Republican Party to change. Otherwise, we won't eliminate the true threat, and the sword of Damocles will hang over the country every time there's an election.

So there must be chaos and disorder–every primary needs to be an utter mess. It's counter-intuitive, but to govern effectively we must first appear completely incapable of governing. This is not about finding a new person to do the Obama third term, it's about fixing a deep problem in our political system that goes back decades. The Republican Party has stopped functioning properly, and only the Democrats can fix it. But first: physician, heal thyself.

ANS -- addendum

that last one about Cory Booker and importing drugs from Canada was a year old.  Sorry about that.  
--Kim

ANS -- CORY BOOKER JOINS SENATE REPUBLICANS TO KILL MEASURE TO IMPORT CHEAPER MEDICINE FROM CANADA

This is a short article about bringing prescription drugs in from Canada.  It's an interesting issue.  I don't think Canadians drugs are less safe -- in fact they might be more safe than ours, since they often have stricter guidelines for things like that.  I didn't copy the photo of Cory Booker.  It's on the site.
--Kim



BERNIE SANDERS INTRODUCED a very simple symbolic amendment Wednesday night, urging the federal government to allow Americans to purchase pharmaceutical drugs from Canada, where they are considerably cheaper. Such unrestricted drug importation is currently prohibited by law.

The policy has widespread support among Americans: one Kaiser poll taken in 2015 found that 72 percent of Americans are in favor of allowing for importation. President-elect Donald Trump also campaigned on a promise to allow for importation.

The Senate voted down the amendment 52-46, with two senators not voting. Unusually, the vote was not purely along party lines: 13 Republicans joined Sanders and a majority of Democrats in supporting the amendment, while 13 Democrats and a majority of Republicans opposed it.

One of those Democrats was New Jersey's Cory Booker, who is considered a rising star in the party and a possible 2020 presidential contender.

In a statement to the media after the vote, Booker's office said he supports the importation of prescription drugs but that "any plan to allow the importation of prescription medications should also include consumer protections that ensure foreign drugs meet American safety standards. I opposed an amendment put forward last night that didn't meet this test."

This argument is the same one offered by the pharmaceutical industry. The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), which lobbies against importation, maintains that it opposes importation because "foreign governments will not ensure that prescription drugs entering the U.S. from abroad are safe and effective."

The safety excuse has long been a refuge for policymakers who don't want to assist Americans struggling with prescription drug costs. Bills to legalize importation passed in 2000 and 2007, but expired after the Clinton and Bush administrations refused to certify that it would be safe. The Obama administration also cited safety concerns when opposing an importation measure in the Affordable Care Act.

A second amendment Wednesday, authored by Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden, would have allowed importation pending a safety certification, just like the previous laws passed on the subject. It also failed. Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., used that amendment to claim on Twitter that he voted "to lower drug prices through importation from Canada," and Booker referred to the Wyden amendment in his statement as well. This is a well-worn tactic from opponents of importation to mislead their constituents, as they know such certification will never occur.

The safety excuse is mostly a chimera, as most of the drugs that would be imported from Canada were originally manufactured in the United States; they're just cheaper there, because the Canadian government uses a review board and price negotiation to make drugs more affordable.

"My first response to that is show me the dead Canadians. Where are the dead Canadians?" former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a Republican, once asked during his own push to allow for importation.

Democrats blocked importation from becoming part of the Affordable Care Act in 2009, with over 30 votes in opposition, because they feared it would have pushed the pharmaceutical industry to oppose the underlying legislation. They also voted in large numbers to oppose importation as part of an FDA bill in 2012.

Booker and some of his Democratic colleagues who opposed the Sanders amendment are longtime friends of the drug industry. As MapLight data shows, Booker has received more pharmaceutical manufacturing cashover the past six years than any other Democratic senator: $267,338. In addition, significant numbers of pharmaceutical and biotech firms residein Booker's home state of New Jersey. Other Democrats receiving six-figure donations from the industry, like Casey, Patty Murray, and Michael Bennet, opposed the amendment.

Top photo: Booker at a Senate Housing, Transportation, and Community Development Subcommittee meeting on July 30, 2014, in Washington, D.C.

Sunday, January 21, 2018

ANS -- The year of Trump has laid bare the US constitution’s serious flaws

A short-ish article on our constitution and the flaws that are showing themselves now.  It is not a harsh criticism, but an apt one.  
--Kim



Illustration by Matt Kenyon
 Illustration by Matt Kenyon

There's a million things to love about Hamilton, the musical that has opened in London to reviews as glowing as those that greeted its debut on Broadway. The lyrics are so ingenious, so intricate and dexterous, that the show's creator, Lin-Manuel Miranda, has a claim to be among the most exciting writers, in any medium, in the world today. Rarely have I seen an audience delight in the tricks and rhyming pyrotechnics of language the way I saw a preview audience react to Hamilton a fortnight ago.

As I say, there are countless other pleasures. The staging is inventive, the melodies memorable and, by having black and minority ethnic actors play Alexander Hamilton and his fellow founding fathers, the musical instantly offers a powerful new take on America's tragic, enduring flaw: race. But it was the idealism of the show – which venerates Hamilton and George Washington and unabashedly romanticises the revolution that birthed the United States of America – that struck a particular chord for me.

In 2018, it will be 20 years since I published a book called Bring Home the Revolution. Begun when I was still in my 20s, it too was an essay in idealism, arguing that the American uprising of 1776 and the constitution that followed in 1787 were a rebellion against a system of government under which we Britons still laboured two centuries later – albeit with an overmighty, overcentralised government in place of the bewigged King George.

The American revolution, I argued, was our inheritance, a part of our patrimony mislaid across the Atlantic. From a written constitution to a system of radically devolved power to the replacement of monarchy with an elected head of state, it was time for us to bring home the revolution that we had made in America.

With impeccable timing, my hymn of praise for the US constitution appeared a matter of months before what looked a lot like a US constitutional crisis, with the impeachment of Bill Clinton over perjury charges arising from his denials of a relationship with a White House intern, Monica Lewinsky. "So you want us to live the American dream?" one interviewer asked. "All a bit of nightmare now, isn't it?"

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That, or something like it, has happened at intervals ever since. If it wasn't a hideous, only-in-America mass shooting, it would be an election in which a man with fewer votes defeated an infinitely more qualified opponent who had won more.

Usually, I have managed to deflect these challenges, arguing that my book was a homage to a founding ideal, not to the necessarily flawed reality. But it's time for me to admit my doubts about its core idea – its admiration for the US constitution and system of government. For this first year of the Donald Trump presidency has exposed two flaws in the model that I cannot brush aside so easily.

The first is that Trump has vividly demonstrated that much of what keeps a democracy intact is not enshrined in the written letter of a constitution, but resides instead in customs and conventions – norms – that are essential to civic wellbeing. Trump trampled all over those as a candidate – refusing to disclose his tax returns, for example – and has trampled over even more as president.

Convention dictated that he had to divest himself of private business concerns on taking office, to prevent a conflict of interest – but in the absence of a law explicitly forcing him to do so, he did no such thing. The same goes for appointing unqualified relatives to senior jobs, sacking the director of the FBI with no legitimate cause, or endorsing an accused child molester for the US Senate. No law told him he couldn't, so he did.

I once thought the US constitution – a document crafted with almost mathematical precision, constructing a near-perfect equilibrium of checks and balances – offered protection against such perils. And there's no denying that that text, as interpreted by the courts, has indeed acted as a partial roadblock in Trump's path, delaying and diluting his Muslim-focused "travel ban", for example.

But this year of Trump has also shown the extent to which the US has an unwritten constitution that – just like ours – relies on the self-restraint of the key political players, a self-restraint usually insisted upon by a free press. Yet when confronted with a leader unbound by any sense of shame – and shamelessness might just be Trump's defining quality – America is left unexpectedly vulnerable.

Of course, there is a remedy, and its name is impeachment. Scholars are clear that Trump has already provided sufficient legal grounds for such a move – the case against him is far more compelling than the one against Bill Clinton. But impeachment proceedings are triggered by the House of Representatives, followed by a trial in the Senate, and nothing will happen so long as Republicans control both houses of Congress.

In 2017 we saw with new clarity that the strength of the US constitution depends entirely on the willingness of those charged with enforcing it to do their duty. And today's Republicans refuse to fulfil that obligation. They, like Trump, are without shame. This was a fatal oversight by Hamilton, James Madison and their fellow framers of the constitution. They did not reckon on a partisanship so intense it would blind elected representatives to the national interest – so that they would, repeatedly, put party ahead of country. The founders did not conceive of a force like today's Republican party, willing to indulge a president nakedly hostile to ideals Americans once held sacred.


My 1998 self asks me whether, say, the Westminster parliament would really be so different if confronted by a Trump-like would-be autocrat. Would individual MPs suppress their own revulsion and back him, fearing deselection by party activists if they did not – much as congressional Republicans won't move against Trump lest they face the wrath of his base? It's conceivable. And yet a parliamentary vote of no confidence is a lower hurdle than impeachment. Put simply, it would be easier to get rid of a British Trump.

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And these weaknesses in the US model have prompted me to see others. The second amendment does not compel Americans to allow an unrestricted flow of guns into the hands of the violent and dangerous, but the fact that the argument hinges on interpretations of a text written more than two centuries ago is itself a problem. It means America, in the words of that great revolutionary Thomas Paine, is too often "like dead and living bodies chained together", today's generation shackled to the words of their ancestors.

And yet, despite everything, I still see so much to admire in the founding achievement of America. The society remains innovative, restless and creative: it's still capable of producing a work of genius like Hamilton. But its next act of renewal might be to update or amend the text that gave it birth, to declare that no human invention, no matter how great, can remain stuck. Were he around, I suspect that "bastard, orphan, son of a whore and a Scotsman" would agree.

 Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist