This is a dire warning. I know it sounds far-fetched, but we just talked to a friend on the energy commission earlier this evening and she said it's pretty much true. She said they are preparing for rolling brown-outs. Being prepared is a good idea. Read this!
--Kim
I've been holding up on this for that past two months, but it's time to say something. Those of you who were following my Facebook in January 2020 might pay special attention: if you were listening then, I'm asking you to listen again now.
This article is from oilprice.com, which is the general business magazine for the fossil industry. It lays out the situation very clearly, without exaggeration.
Summary: The US is four to six weeks from the bottom of its strategic oil reserve barrel. And even if Trump signs a deal with Iran tonight (who thinks that's likely?), we're not going to get the missing 20% of the world's oil flow back into the supply chain in time to forestall a major economic upheaval, probably arriving shortly after the Fourth of July. (The estimates are that once this crisis passes -- if it ever does -- it will take roughly one week per day of the shutdown to bring the world's oil infrastructure back online. At 100 days plus, that's two years. And that's the best case scenario, if it starts today. Which it will not.)
By early to mid July, we're looking at a doubling of per-barrel prices, creating very rapid inflation that could rival what we saw in COVID. It's also going to mean that anything that moves by fossil fuels (which is almost everything) is going to become significantly harder to get.
If you've never been a prepper in your life, June might be a good month to explore the lifestyle. A few things to consider:
Lay in a couple months of shelf-stable staple foods.
Get ahead on your prescriptions and other products your health and comfort depend on.
If you've got a bike, scooter, motorcycle, or other small low- or no-fuel transportation method, drag it out of the garage and make sure it's in good working order.
If there's any big-ticket item you're looking at -- that new refrigerator or sofa -- that's going to be expensive to ship, pull the trigger and buy it now.
If you've been considering the switch from an internal combustion car to an EV, do it NOW -- EVs of every vintage are going to be in insane demand by Labor Day. Likewise, it's high time to do an electric upgrade on any other gas-burning machinery you depend on.
If you're going to get away for a road or flying trip, do it in the next few weeks.
Poke around your town to find out as much as you can about the things that are made locally -- farms, dairies, compounding pharmacies, and small manufacturers of every type. If it comes down to it, these folks' skills and resources can make a localized life much richer.
I feel very much like I felt those first few weeks of 2020 when Evan and I realized, just days after NYE, what was coming out of China, and quietly started building ourselves some margin and warning our close friends. We had six to eight weeks then. We probably have a bit less than that now.
If you stay calm and rational, and use that time well, you can do a lot to batten down the hatches before the rest of the country wakes up, figures it out, and starts to freak. You want to have your own act well squared away before that happens.
Sorry to be a downer. And I really hope I'm wrong. But we are now far enough down this road that I don't see how we're going to get off of it without going through at least a pretty rough summer.
See less
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment